Making the Case

• Elite Athlete
• RD1 Pick
• Rookie Production
• YR2 Production
• Reception Perception
• Injury-Deflated Outlook
• Situational Discount

I have Brandon Aiyuk ranked much higher than consensus & am constantly asked “why?” This article will cover it all.

For starters – Brandon Aiyuk is an elite athlete. He runs a 4.50 40, has a 40” vertical (!!), & checks in with a 92nd percentile burst score.

While his college profile did have some blemishes (JUCO-transfer/SR-declare), he had great SR. production (83rd percentile Dominator/88th percentile target share), quality film, & that elite athleticism.

& it got him drafted RD1, 25th overall despite the blemishes.

Unfortunately, Aiyuk pulled his hamstring in training camp as a rookie & missed a chunk of the offseason & the first week of the regular season.

Fortunately – it didn’t matter.

After going 2/21 on 3 targets in his rookie debut, he went 5/70 on 8 targets & had another 3 rushing attempts for 31 yards & this TD – in just his 2nd NFL game.

After going for 101 & a tuddie in his 2nd game, he “only” put up 56 total yards in his 3rd game.

But it included this magnificent play.

& his next 8 games?

⁃ 3/44 on 6 targets
⁃ 2/12 & a rushing TD
⁃ 6/115 on 7 targets
⁃ 8/91 on 10 targets
⁃ 7/75/1 on 14 targets
⁃ 5/95/1 on 9 targets
⁃ 10/119 on 16 targets
⁃ 9/73/1 on 13 targets

Before going 1/15 (+ 1/16 rushing) & spraining his ankle vs AZ in WK16.

Despite playing just 12 games, he led SF in:

⁃ Targets (96)
⁃ Receptions (60)
⁃ Receiving Yards (748)
⁃ Receiving TD’s (5)

As a 22-year old rookie, being thrown in off a hamstring injury & also being placed on the COVID list twice.

He had 100+ yards or a TD in 9/12 games.

& was one of PFF’s highest-graded rookies, ever.

Check out this list.

Every WR on that list (except Terry McLaurin) has *at least* one Top-12 finish.

& 10/15 have *at least* one TOP-5 finish.

That’s fantastic.

When lined up as an X receiver – those success-rates were even better (86th & 88th percentiles).

An excerpt from Matt Harmon:

Superstardom in YR2 seemed inevitable.

Unfortunately, Aiyuk pulled his hammy in camp (again) & missed a chunk of offseason work (again), including SF’s final preseason game.

Kyle Shanahan also began to publicly question him, while simultaneously talking up UDFA Trent Sherfield.

When Aiyuk played only 15 snaps & wasn’t targeted WK1 – & Trent Sherfield outsnapped him & scored a TD – panic started to ensue.

When Aiyuk split snaps with Sherfield AGAIN in WK2 & finished with just 1/6 on 2 targets…

& Kyle Shanahan publicly declared that it “wasn’t a tough decision” to play Sherfield…

All hell broke loose.

People started comparing Aiyuk to Dante Pettis & publicly questioned whether he was doomed to follow the same path.

With Deebo excelling & Aiyuk being eased back from injury – Aiyuk topped 71% of the snaps just once through the first 7 games.

& his dynasty value was SEVERELY damaged as a result.

But in that one game where Aiyuk topped 71% of snaps – he caught 4/6 targets for 37 yards & a TD (& had another rushing attempt for 8 yards).

It was clear if Aiyuk could just get healthy & back to a full-time role – he’d produce.

& that’s exactly what happened.

Aiyuk played 88% of the snaps in WK8 & didn’t fall below 90% in any game after.

He produced 47/730/4 on 68 targets in those last 11 games – a 16-game pace of 68/1061/6 on 99 targets (not including rushing).

& once again, even in a “down” year, he stood out in Reception Perception – finishing with 64th, 64th, & 80th percentile success-rates vs Man, Zone, & Press.

Aiyuk averaged 13.2 PPG over the final 11 games where he saw a full snap-count.

13.2 PPG would’ve placed WR31 in PPG on the season.

Despite the historically excellent rookie year, a solid finish in YR2, & being just 24 years old – Aiyuk’s dynasty ADP (WR38) is still suffering the residual effects of that early-season fiasco.

The unknown status (& ability) of QB Trey Lance hasn’t done anything to help Aiyuk’s value either (despite Jimmy G being a relatively low bar to clear).

& it’s created the perfect buy-low window for Brandon Aiyuk.

Here’s ADP from recent Sleeper dynasty startups, compiled by @Adeiko_FF

You can see Brandon Aiyuk way down there at the bottom.

On talent alone – I still view Aiyuk in the same light as the Elijah Moore, Rashod Bateman, Devonta Smith, Hollywood tier.

But he’s not priced like it.

Even if Deebo signs an extension, Aiyuk is a strong bet to outperform his WR38 ADP.

& if Deebo or Kittle were to get hurt (they have 1 injury-free season combined in 8 total years) – Aiyuk has legitimate Top-12 upside.

So how to acquire him?

You can try a small throw-in (like Allen Lazard) + a 2023 2.

You can sell low-upside RB’s…

(Solid but depreciating) veteran WR’s…

You can add something small to Gabriel Davis…

You can trade Jerry Jeudy for Aiyuk+

You can trade unproven rookies like Jameson Williams & Chris Olave (valued WR26 & WR28) for Aiyuk+

& who knows how much you can get on top of Aiyuk by pivoting from the tier he should be valued alongside (Elijah Moore, Bateman, Hollywood, & Devonta)…

A 2023 2 on top, at the very least.

There are so many ways to BUY into Brandon Aiyuk at a WR38 price tag & he is someone you should be very interested in acquiring.

He was one of my favorite targets last year & at his current asking price – I am prepared to double-down.