Making the Case

Let’s talk about MATH! (trust me, it’ll be fun)

Understanding your playoff probabilities is a key part of managing your fantasy teams.

& you can start to get an idea of your playoff odds as soon as Week 3.

Let’s first talk about it from a REDRAFT perspective…

(chart & data provided by Laura Pressman & Automated Insights)

This chart is based on 12-team leagues where 6/12 teams make playoffs (& is based on a 12-game regular season).

In this format, you have a(n):

• 84.8% chance of making the playoffs after a 3-0 start
• 63.8% chance of making the playoffs after a 2-1 start
• 36.2% chance of making the playoffs after a 1-2 start
• 15.5% chance of making the playoffs after an 0-3 start

(These rates are slightly different with a 14-game regular season: a 3-0 start is not quite as “clinching” & an 0-3 start is not quite as “damning” because of the extra weeks – but the overarching point remains).

You’ll notice that according to this chart: 

A 7-5 record (8-6 record in a 14-game season) is the “magic” ticket.

If you go .500, you have a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

But if you win 1 extra game, your chances jump to roughly 80%+.

If you start 3-0… BUY potential league-winning season-finishers (suspended players; injured superstars). You have a good chance of making the playoffs already, start to shift your focus towards the final stretch. You only need to go 5-6 the rest of the season to get that “magic ticket,” & even if you only go 4-7 the rest of the season & finish .500, you’ll still have a 50% chance of making the playoffs.

On the flip-side, if you’re 0-3, NOW’S THE TIME to start making some moves.

You only have a 15.5% chance of making the playoffs after an 0-3 start.

& that drops to just an 8.7% chance of making the playoffs if you start 0-4.

You have to go 8-3 the rest of the season to get that “magic ticket” into the playoffs after starting 0-3, & you have to go 7-4 the rest of the season (at worst) to even give yourself a 50% chance.

So when you start 0-3, you NEED to shift your focus from having the best playoff team to simply just getting to the playoffs.

This might mean trading an injured stud to one of the top teams for a package that improves your starting lineup NOW.

It might mean trading an underperforming rookie on your bench for an “unsexy” but productive veteran.

It’s also time to package bench depth, if you have any. 

Having extra options on your bench is NOT going to help dig you out of a hole, you need to package your bench value + starters for better starters & improve your starting lineup projections. Even if you lose slightly on “value” in those trades. A better starting lineup is more important than overall team value at that point. You can worry about finding depth off waivers as you go.

You should also be streaming the best available DEF/ST based strictly on the best matchup THIS WEEK.

Don’t worry about keeping defenses that have good matchups 2 or 3 weeks down the road, we can no longer afford that luxury.

Add & start the DEF/ST with the best matchup THIS WEEK, EVERY WEEK. 

You’re going to have to really have short-term vision & maintain a THIS WEEK mentality on 0-3 squads. 

& then you can evaluate a shifting landscape next week & roll with the punches as you go.

But THIS week is all that matters when you’re 0-3 & you’re not going to be able to ditch that mentality until you start stacking a significant amount of wins. You only have 3 losses to give up over the next 11 weeks (4 losses, at max, to even give yourself a chance).

In DYNASTY – it’s important to be realistic with yourself about your chances of making the playoffs.

You’re not necessarily doomed at 0-3 (especially if you face more “tankers” than competing teams over your remaining schedule, which you should be checking).

But if you have your own rookie 1st for next year, start 0-3, & aren’t a top team in PF or Max PF, it’s time to STRONGLY consider pivoting towards a “tanking” or “productive struggle” strategy, & leaning into losing – to ensure you secure a high rookie 1st (ideally 1.01) instead of trying to win this year.

Is your team truly due for a bounce-back? How high are your starters’ weekly projections vs the other teams? How many teams have higher projections? How high is your PF? Max PF? How many “strong” teams are already “locks” for the playoffs? Which teams are you chasing & are they real contenders or pretenders? Because your odds of making the playoffs are dwindling at 0-3.

Making the pivot to a “tank” early on & going strong into next year with a plan can be much more beneficial than refusing to let go & trying to bandage a team beyond repair.

You can read more about the “tanking” aka “productive struggle” strategy HERE.

Basically, a productive “tank” is done by:

• Targeting elite QB’s
• Buying injury/situational discounts
• Building with a WR-heavy approach
• Rostering zero-RB’s (or only 1 RB)
• Acquiring future draft capital
• Focusing on studs > depth

You can do these things more effectively the sooner you commit to the strategy.

Be realistic about your odds & know when it’s time to throw in the towel.