Making the Case

Future 2/3 swaps are one the easiest ways to stack value in dynasty.

It’s a simple, non-extreme ask in trade negotiations, & we should be able to execute the move repeatedly.

There are 2 main benefits:

• Future 2’s “hit” at *roughly* 2.5X the rate of future 3’s.
• Future 2’s are better trade chips than future 3’s.

To demonstrate the value of a 2/3 swap – let’s look back historically at RD2 & RD3 dynasty rookie draft ADP, & the difference in hit-rates between each rookie class.

(You can skip to the end for the final totals).

I’ve simply gone through the ADP at a “quick-glance” & *roughly* defined each player as either a:

• Hit
• Miss
• Contributor (whether via production or a legitimate market value-spike)

I’m eyeballing these players & some of them are still mid-career, which means some of the tags are subjective. Feel free to “adjust” the numbers if you want to argue any discrepancies.

Most of the player outcomes are pretty clear, however, & the data is pretty self-explanatory.

Here are the (Superflex) rookie draft ADP’s & outcomes from 2014-2021:

• 2014 (ADP)

2.01 Kelvin Benjamin – Contributor
2.02 Marqise Lee – Miss
2.03 Terrance West – Miss
2.04 Derek Carr – Hit
2.05 Davante Adams – Hit
2.06 Devonta Freeman – Hit
2.07 Jeremy Hill – Contributor
2.08 Cody Latimer – Miss
2.09 Austin Sefarian-Jenkins – Miss
2.10 Ka’Deem Carey – Miss
2.11 Donte Moncreif – Contributor
2.12 Allen Robinson – Hit

3.01 Isaiah Crowell – Contributor
3.02 Andre Williams – Miss
3.03 Martavis Bryant – Contributor
3.04 Zach Mettenberger – Miss
3.05 Lache Seastrunk – Miss
3.06 Paul Richardson – Miss
3.07 Logan Thomas – Contributor
3.08 Jarvis Landry – Hit
3.09 Charles Sims – Contributor
3.10 Jace Amaro – Miss
3.11 Tom Savage – Miss
3.12 Jimmy Garoppolo – Contributor

• 2014 Summary

RD2
4/12 Hits (33.3%)
3/12 Contributors (25%)
5/12 Misses (41.7%)

RD3
1/12 Hits (8.3%)
5/12 Contributors (41.7%)
6/12 Misses (50%)

4 hits in RD2 vs 1 hit in RD3. RD2 also gave us higher-ceiling outcomes (Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Devonta Freeman) vs RD3 (Martavis Bryant, Jarvis Landry, Jimmy Garoppolo).

• 2015 (ADP)

2.01 Ameer Abdullah – Miss
2.02 Duke Johnson – Contributor
2.03 Jay Ajayi – Hit
2.04 Max Williams – Miss
2.05 Jaelen Strong – Miss
2.06 Phillip Dorsett – Miss
2.07 David Johnson – Hit
2.08 David Cobb – Miss
2.09 Devin Funchess – Contributor
2.10 Garrett Grayson – Miss
2.11 Tyler Lockett – Hit
2.12 Sammie Coates – Miss

3.01 Devin Smith – Miss
3.02 Javorious Allen – Contributor
3.03 Chris Conley – Miss
3.04 Jeremy Langford – Contributor
3.05 Matt Jones – Contributor
3.06 Mike Davis – Contributor
3.07 Bryce Petty – Miss
3.08 Justin Hardy – Miss
3.09 Rashad Greene – Miss
3.10 Cameron Artis-Payne – Miss
3.11 Clive Walford – Miss
3.12 DeAndre Smelter – Miss

• 2015 Summary

RD2
3/12 Hits (25%)
2/12 Contributors (16.7%)
7/12 Misses (58.3%)

RD3
0/12 Hits (0%)
4/12 Contributors (33.3%)
8/12 Misses (66.7%)

Not a great RD2 – but an even worse RD3, where there were zero “hits.”

• 2016 (ADP)

2.01 Devontae Booker – Contributor
2.02 CJ Prosise – Miss
2.03 Paul Perkins – Miss
2.04 Jordan Howard – Hit
2.05 Leonte Caroo – Miss
2.06 Will Fuller – Hit
2.07 Kenyan Drake – Hit
2.08 Hunter Henry – Hit
2.09 Braxton Miller – Miss
2.10 Malcolm Mitchell – Miss
2.11 Jonathan Williams – Miss
2.12 Keith Marshall – Miss

3.01 Christian Hackenberg – Miss
3.02 Pharoh Cooper – Miss
3.03 Cardale Jones – Miss
3.04 Tyler Higbee – Contributor
3.05 Wendell Smallwood – Miss
3.06 DeAndre Washington – Miss
3.07 Moritz Boehringer – Miss
3.08 Alex Collins – Contributor
3.09 Tyler Ervin – Miss
3.10 Jeff Driskel – Miss
3.11 Rashard Higgins – Miss
3.12 Mike Thomas – Miss

• 2016 Summary

RD2
4/12 Hits (33.3%)
1/12 Contributors (8.3%)
7/12 Misses (58.3%)

RD3
0/12 Hits (0%)
2/12 Contributors (16.7%)
10/12 Misses (83.3%)

Another brutal class overall – especially in RD3, where there were (again) zero “hits.”

• 2017 (ADP)

2.01 DeShone Kizer – Miss
2.02 John Ross – Miss
2.03 Juju Smith-Schuster – Hit
2.04 David Njoku – Contributor
2.05 Alvin Kamara – Hit
2.06 Samaje Perine – Contributor
2.07 Chris Godwin – Hit
2.08 Curtis Samuel – Contributor
2.09 Kareem Hunt – Hit
2.10 Zay Jones – Contributor
2.11 Jeremy McNichols – Miss
2.12 D’Onta Foreman – Contributor

3.01 Joe Williams – Miss
3.02 Carlos Henderson – Miss
3.03 Jamaal Williams – Contributor
3.04 Taywan Taylor – Miss
3.05 Cooper Kupp – Hit
3.06 ArDarius Stewart – Miss
3.07 Wayne Gallman – Miss
3.08 James Conner – Hit
3.09 Jake Butt – Miss
3.10 Josh Reynolds – Miss
3.11 Gerald Everett – Contributor
3.12 Kenny Golladay – Hit

• 2017 Summary

RD2
4/12 Hits (33.3%)
5/12 Contributors (41.7%)
3/12 Misses (25%)

RD3
3/12 Hits (25%)
2/12 Contributors (16.7%)
7/12 Misses (58.3%)

4 hits in RD2 (Kamara, Godwin, Juju, Hunt) vs 3 hits in RD3 (Conner, Kupp, Golladay). Also a lot more depth in RD2 (5 contributors vs 2).

• 2018 (ADP)

2.01 Royce Freeman – Miss
2.02 Kerryon Johnson – Contributor
2.03 Calvin Ridley – Hit
2.04 Courtland Sutton – Hit
2.05 Christian Kirk – Hit
2.06 Michael Gallup – Contributor
2.07 James Washington – Miss
2.08 Anthony Miller – Miss
2.09 Dante Pettis – Miss
2.10 Mike Gesicki – Contributor
2.11 Equanimeous St. Brown – Miss
2.12 Kalen Ballage – Miss

3.01 DJ Chark – Contributor
3.02 Tre’Quan Smith – Miss
3.03 Nyheim Hines – Contributor
3.04 Dallas Goedert – Hit
3.05 Mason Rudolph – Miss
3.06 Antonio Callaway – Miss
3.07 DaeSean Hamilton – Miss
3.08 Hayden Hurst – Contributor
3.09 John Kelly – Miss
3.10 Deon Cain – Miss
3.11 Mark Walton – Miss
3.12 Mark Andrews – Hit

• 2018 Summary

RD2
3/12 Hits (25%)
3/12 Contributors (25%)
6/12 Misses (50%)

RD3
2/12 Hits (16.7%)
3/12 Contributors (25%)
7/12 Misses (58.3%)

Not a huge difference between RD2 & RD3 in this class.

• 2019 (ADP)

2.01 Noah Fant – Contributor
2.02 Dwayne Haskins – Miss
2.03 Drew Lock – Miss
2.04 Hakeem Butler – Miss
2.05 Hollywood Brown – Hit
2.06 Andy Isabella – Miss
2.07 Mecole Hardman – Miss
2.08 Darrell Henderson – Contributor
2.09 Damien Harris – Contributor
2.10 Justice Hill – Miss
2.11 Irv Smith – Contributor
2.12 Devin Singletary – Contributor

3.01 Kelvin Harmon – Miss
3.02 Miles Boykin – Miss
3.03 Diontae Johnson – Hit
3.04 Terry McLaurin – Hit
3.05 Jace Sternberger – Miss
3.06 Alexander Mattison – Contributor
3.07 Benny Snell – Miss
3.08 Bryce Love – Miss
3.09 Rodney Anderson – Miss
3.10 Riley Ridley – Miss
3.11 Jalen Hurd – Miss
3.12 Ryquell Armstead – Miss

• 2019 Summary

RD2
1/12 Hits (8.3%)
5/12 Contributors (41.7%)
6/12 Misses (50%)

RD3
2/12 Hits (16.7%)
1/12 Contributors (8.3%)
9/12 Misses (75%)

There was actually 1 more hit in RD3 than RD2 (2-1) in 2019, but there were basically no other contributors in RD3 at all.

• 2020 (ADP)

2.01 Ke’Shawn Vaughn – Miss
2.02 Henry Ruggs – Contributor
2.03 Denzel Mims – Miss
2.04 Tee Higgins – Hit
2.05 Michael Pittman – Hit
2.06 Brandon Aiyuk – Hit
2.07 Zack Moss – Miss
2.08 Laviska Shenault – Miss
2.09 Bryan Edwards – Miss
2.10 AJ Dillon – Contributor
2.11 Jalen Hurts – Hit
2.12 Antonio Gibson – Hit

3.01 Jordan Love – Hit
3.02 Chase Claypool – Contributor
3.03 KJ Hamler – Miss
3.04 Van Jefferson – Miss
3.05 Darrynton Evans – Miss
3.06 Anthony McFarland – Miss
3.07 Devin Duvernay – Miss
3.08 Jacob Eason – Miss
3.09 Joshua Kelley – Miss
3.10 Cole Kmet – Contributor
3.11 Lynn Bowden – Miss
3.12 Antonio Gandy-Golden – Miss

• 2020 Summary

RD2
5/12 Hits (41.7%)
2/12 Contributors (16.7%)
5/12 Misses (41.7%)

RD3
1/12 Hits (8.3%)
2/12 Contributors (16.7%)
9/12 Misses (75%)

5 hits to 1. If you had swapped a random 2020 3 for a random 2020 2 in a trade before the season, it would’ve put you in a MUCH better position to add an impactful player to your roster. & it could’ve paid off MASSIVELY considering some of the RD2 hits (Higgins, Pittman, Aiyuk, Hurts).

• 2021 (ADP)

2.01 Rashod Bateman – Contributor
2.02 Elijah Moore – Contributor
2.03 Trey Sermon – Miss
2.04 Terrace Marshall – Miss
2.05 Rondale Moore – Miss
2.06 Michael Carter – Contributor
2.07 Kadarius Toney – Miss
2.08 Amon-Ra St. Brown – Hit
2.09 Dyami Brown – Miss
2.10 Amari Rodgers – Miss
2.11 Kenneth Gainwell – Miss
2.12 Pat Freiermuth – Hit

3.01 Nico Collins – Hit
3.02 Chuba Hubbard – Contributor
3.03 Rhamondre Stevenson – Hit
3.04 Josh Palmer – Contributor
3.05 Kyle Trask – Miss
3.06 D’Wayne Eskridge – Miss
3.07 Davis Mills – Contributor
3.08 Tylan Wallace – Miss
3.09 Kellen Mond – Miss
3.10 Elijah Mitchell – Contributor
3.11 Tutu Atwell – Miss
3.12 Khalil Herbert – Contributor

• 2021 Summary

RD2
2/12 Hits (16.7%)
3/12 Contributors (25%)
7/12 Misses (58.3%)

RD3
2/12 Hits (16.7%)
5/12 Contributors (41.7%)
5/12 Misses (41.7%)

Similar “rates,” but more overall value in RD2 (ARSB, Bateman, Elijah Moore, Freiermuth) than RD3 (Rhamondre, Mills, Mitchell, Herbert, Nico).

• Total 8-Year Summary

RD2 Rookie Picks
26/96 Hits (27.1%)
24/96 Contributors (25%)
46/96 Misses (47.9%)

RD3 Rookie Picks
11/96 Hits (11.4%)
24/96 Contributors (25%)
61/96 Misses (63.6%)

In summary:

• *Roughly* 25% of RD2 rookie picks “hit.”
• *Roughly* 10% of RD3 rookie picks “hit.”

• RD2 & RD3 rookie picks both produce additional “contributors” at *roughly* a 25% rate.

• *Roughly* 45% of RD2 rookie picks miss completely.
• *Roughly* 65% of RD3 rookie picks miss completely.

Based on this data:

• We should be selling RD2 & RD3 rookie picks for proven producers or future 1’s.
• We *roughly* 2.5X our projected hit-rate turning a random 3 into a random 2.

RD2 rookie picks probably won’t win us our dynasty leagues.

They “hit” at only a 25% rate.

BUT, they’re better bets than RD3 rookie picks (which hit at only a 10% rate).

& they’re much better trade chips than RD3 picks.

Turning 3’s into 2’s gives us more ammo to trade for proven producers, or future 1’s.

Don’t overvalue 2/3 swaps expecting to hit big – but don’t undervalue those swaps either.

2/3 swaps make sense when pivoting between identical, same-tier options.

If we can’t make up our mind between 2 players – but can convince someone else to pay us to make that decision for us, take that “free” 2/3 swap in our favor & run!

Let others take stands on choosing between identical assets. Acquire as much “free” future draft capital as they’ll give us to insulate ourselves from injuries & random future variance.

The “art” of the 2/3 swap is perfected when we target players we have ranked higher PLUS a pick-swap in our favor (within a range where there’s no consensus ranking).

For example, offering:

A player we have ranked WR24 + a future 3
FOR
A player we have ranked WR22 + a future 2

If we can get someone to take a stand on a player we have ranked lower WHILE PAYING US TO DO IT, well, that’s perfection.

Like taking candy from a baby, some would say.

The perfect 2/3 swap allows us to walk away with BOTH the better player AND the better pick.