Making the Case

• FOR Brock Bowers
• FOR Ben Sinnott

& the late-round TE’s…

These “Cases” will cover what I think “matters” when scouting the TE position.

It will also include my thoughts on the 2024 rookie TE’s, as well as some potential comps.

First, let’s talk about “the process.”

What matters when scouting TE prospects?

I decided to create my own “TE Anatomical Checklist” in March 2021, after stumbling upon Jax Falcone’s aka @DynoGameTheory’s “Anatomy of a Top-12 Dynasty TE.”

When I read his thread highlighting “predictive” metrics for the TE position, my idea was to take this information & chart it, color-code it, & then arrange it in order of my dynasty rankings.

(I also added a few additional metrics I thought were important & should be included)

I wanted to see if charting every TE’s profile added any new perspective.

Which TE profiles stood out as “misplaced” in my dynasty rankings? If any?

I posted a thread of my reactions to that first charting back in 2021, which you can read HERE.

My very first takeaway upon charting every TE was that Noah Fant > TJ Hockenson (which has decidedly not aged well, lol).

But some of the other takeaways?

• Irv Smith’s profile appeared fraudulent (it was)
• Evan Engram was a massive value, should be ranked ahead of Irv Smith & Cole Kmet (definitely the correct call; luckily has undone some of the damage of the Fant > Hock take)
• Pat Freiermuth & Brevin Jordan solid prospects if RD2 DC (Muth got the RD2 DC, Brevin didn’t)
• Austin Hooper, Hayden Hurst not impressive (true)
• Gronk & Ertz worth stashing (Gronk put up 55/802/6 in 12 games & finished Top-3 in PPG in his final season; Ertz bounced back with 74/763/5, mostly after getting traded to AZ, a year after putting up just 335 yards in 11 games his last year in PHI)

Noah Fant buying spree aside – I felt like I found something useful with this color-coded “checklist.”

Identify which metrics “matter” (height, weight, draft capital, 40, vertical, dominator rating, yards per-reception, catch radius) – you know what to look for.

I started to use this “TE Anatomical Checklist” regularly, & always updated it according to my dynasty rankings (as well as updating my dynasty rankings according to it; the two acting as a check & balance system vs each other).

I also started to add more metrics which I found to be predictive (like early-declare status).

I’ve relied on this checklist HEAVILY when evaluating incoming rookie TE prospects.

& this led to me being EXTREMELY high on TE prospects like Kyle Pitts, Trey McBride, & Sam LaPorta.

I ranked Pitts 1.01 in his class – 4 spots ahead of ADP.

Trey McBride 2.01 in his class – 6 spots ahead of ADP.

& Sam LaPorta 1.12 in his class – 9 spots ahead of ADP.

No process is perfect (see Fant, Pitts to an extent depending who you ask, recently Mayer although TBD) – but the McBride & LaPorta hits definitely feel like “validation” for the charting process.

You could see their breakouts coming a MILE away – if you simply knew what to look for.

For starters, the number one predictor of TE success is DRAFT CAPITAL.

You’ll often hear people suggest draft capital “doesn’t matter” for TE’s because Travis Kelce, George Kittle, & Darren Waller weren’t RD1 or even RD2 NFL Draft picks.

But that narrative couldn’t be further from the truth.

Here’s 15 years worth of data provided by Drew O aka @DFBeanCounter highlighting the importance of draft capital for TE’s.

TE’s drafted RD1/RD2 have exponentially better odds of “hitting.”

& TE’s drafted RD1 are almost guaranteed to put up *at least* one Top-12 finish.

Of the current Top-12 Dynasty TE’s:

8/12 (75%) were drafted RD1-RD2.
10/12 (83.3%) were drafted RD1-RD3.

LaPorta – RD2
McBride – RD2
Bowers – RD1
Pitts – RD1
Kincaid – RD1
Andrews – RD3
Hockenson – RD1
Kelce – RD3
*Kittle – RD5
Engram – RD1
Njoku – RD1
*Ferguson – RD4

The examples people use against draft capital (Travis Kelce, George Kittle, & Darren Waller) were also “special-cases.”

Kelce was suspended an entire season in college, missed the NFL Combine due to injury – & was still drafted with the first pick of RD3.

Kittle dealt with multiple injuries throughout his career at Iowa.

& Waller had known “off the field” issues while at Georgia Tech.

The overarching data suggests draft capital DOES matter when projecting TE’s – & recent breakouts by RD1/RD2 picks (LaPorta, McBride, Kincaid) only reinforces that notion.

Another predictive metric for TE’s is EARLY-DECLARE STATUS.

Being an early-declare is not as big a deal at TE as it is at other positions.

& I wouldn’t penalize the late-declares.

(There are actually twice as many late-declares as early-declares in the current Top-12)

But early-declare TE’s have “outhit” their late-declare counterparts (finishing Top-24, Top-12, & Top-6 at higher-rates), & I would definitely credit a “bonus” for early-declares.

(Chart courtesy of Sharp Football)

ATHLETICISM is also a HUGE predictor of TE success.

There’s a very strong relationship between raw (40) speed & YPG at the position.

(Chart via Tej Seth)

TE’s who can “move like WR’s” are naturally used as such more often.

EVERY SINGLE TOP-12 TE in Dynasty (except Jake Ferguson) runs 4.70 or faster.

LaPorta – 4.59
McBride – 4.56 (Pro Day)
Bowers – DNP
Pitts – 4.49 (Pro Day)
Kincaid – DNP
Andrews – 4.67
Hockenson – 4.70
Kelce – 4.61 (Pro Day)
Kittle – 4.52
Engram – 4.42
Njoku – 4.64
*Ferguson – 4.81

Raw speed is a massive component in predicting TE success & even if a TE isn’t blazing fast, it typically helps if they can hit at least a 4.70 40.

VERTICAL JUMP & CATCH-RADIUS PERCENTILE also matters.

EVERY SINGLE TOP-12 TE (except Mark Andrews & Jake Ferguson) had at least a 33” vertical.

LaPorta – 35”
McBride – 33” (Pro Day)
Bowers – DNP
Pitts – 33.5”
Kincaid – DNP
*Andrews – 31”
Hockenson – 37.5”
Kelce – DNP
Kittle – 38.5”
Engram – 36”
Njoku – 37.5”
*Ferguson – 31”

EVERY SINGLE TOP-12 TE (except Mark Andrews & Jake Ferguson) also has a 75th+ percentile catch radius.

LaPorta – 78th percentile
McBride – N/A
Bowers – N/A
Pitts – 85th percentile
Kincaid – N/A
*Andrews – 43rd percentile
Hockenson – 92nd percentile
Kelce – 79th percentile
Kittle – 95th percentile
Engram – 93rd percentile
Njoku – 94th percentile
*Ferguson – 37th percentile

TE’s who can run fast & jump high are (unsurprisingly) more productive receivers.

TE’s who lack athleticism tend to struggle with efficiency.

EVERY SINGLE TOP-12 TE (except Sam LaPorta & Jake Ferguson) averaged 12.0+ YPR in their collegiate careers.

*LaPorta – 11.7
McBride – 12.8
Bowers – 14.5
Pitts – 14.9
Kincaid – 13.2
Andrews – 15.8
Hockenson – 14.8
Kelce – 14.8
Kittle – 15.4
Engram – 14.3
Njoku – 16.6
*Ferguson – 11.2

It’s not impossible for unathletic, inefficient TE’s to find success – but they typically need to “hit the nuts” situationally with stable QB play + a lack of target competition (see Jake Ferguson).

A lot of people think COLLEGE PRODUCTION “doesn’t matter” for TE’s.

But that narrative couldn’t be further from the truth.

College production DOES matter for TE’s.

EVERY SINGLE TOP-12 TE had an 18%+ College Dominator Rating (share of team yardage/TD’s).

LaPorta – 25.5%
McBride – 46.3%
Bowers – 27.2%
Pitts – 24.1%
Kincaid – 34.1%
Andrews – 18.0%
Hockenson – 24.0%
Kelce – 27.6%
Kittle – 23.2%
Engram – 29.5%
Njoku – 24.6%
Ferguson – 28.2%

Mark Andrews is the ONLY TOP-12 TE who was below 20% – & he played with both CeeDee Lamb & Marquise Brown in college.

College production is predictive of NFL production.

EVEN AT TE.

EVERY SINGLE TOP-12 TE (except Jake Ferguson) also averaged 1.80+ YPRR over the course of their collegiate career.

LaPorta – 1.89
McBride – 2.11
Bowers – 2.64
Pitts – 2.36
Kincaid – 2.32
Andrews – 2.46
Hockenson – 1.99
Kelce – N/A
Kittle – 1.91
Engram – 1.99
Njoku – 2.03
*Ferguson – 1.57

TE’s who produce solid team-shares & per-route efficiency in college are (unsurprisingly) better bets to produce in the NFL.

I just started tracking YPRR this year & also added a few more metrics to the checklist:

• YAC/reception
• MTF (season-high)
• PFF Receiving Grade
• NFL.com Grade

The YAC & MTF numbers are designed to capture which TE’s excel after-the-catch.

The PFF Grade & NFL.com Grades operate as film grades.

What I found by adding this data is:

EVERY SINGLE TOP-12 TE either averaged 5.0+ YAC/reception for their collegiate career, had 10+ missed-tackles forced in a season, or both.

LaPorta – 5.6 YAC (& 20 MTF)
McBride – 5.5 YAC
Bowers – 8.5 YAC (& 18 MTF)
Pitts – 5.4 YAC
Kincaid – 5.2 YAC (& 16 MTF)
Andrews – 6.0 YAC
Hockenson – 7.3 YAC
Kelce – N/A
Kittle – 7.1 YAC
Engram – 6.9 YAC
Njoku – 9.8 YAC (& 15 MTF)
Ferguson – 12 MTF

The best TE’s are typically able to add *something* after the catch.

FILM GRADES also help in predicting TE success.

EVERY SINGLE TOP-12 TE (except David Njoku) posted an 80.0+ PFF Receiving Grade in at least 1 collegiate season.

LaPorta – 85.3
McBride – 95.0
Bowers – 91.6
Pitts – 96.1
Kincaid – 91.8
Andrews – 81.4
Hockenson – 90.8
Kelce – N/A
Kittle – 91.2
Engram – 80.5
*Njoku – 76.3
Ferguson – 86.3

They ALL hit a 75.0+ PFF Receiving Grade in at least 1 season & all but Njoku hit an 80.0+ PFF Receiving Grade in at least 1 season.

EVERY SINGLE TOP-12 TE (except George Kittle & Jake Ferguson) also received a 6.10+ NFL.com Grade from Lance Zierlein.

LaPorta – 6.18
McBride – 6.31
Bowers – 6.71
Pitts – 7.19
Kincaid – 6.48
Andrews – 6.20
Hockenson – 6.80
Kelce – N/A
*Kittle – 5.90
Engram – 6.40
Njoku – 6.80
*Ferguson – 5.99

80.0+ PFF Receiving Grade in at least 1 collegiate season & 6.10+ NFL.com Grade are benchmarks that were hit by basically every Top-12 Dynasty TE.

Add it all up & we have a complete “Anatomical Checklist” profile.

IN SUMMARY, these are the benchmarks we’re looking for in TE prospects:

• RD1-RD3 Draft capital
• 4.70 40 (or faster)
• 33”+ vertical
• 75th+ percentile catch radius
• 12.0+ Career YPR
• 18%+ College Dominator
• 1.80+ Career YPRR
• 5.0+ YAC/reception or 10+ MTF
• 80.0+ PFF Receiving Grade
• 6.10+ NFL.com Grade
• Early-declare (Bonus)

So which TE’s check the most boxes in 2024?

Let’s start with Brock Bowers, arguably the greatest TE prospect in NFL HISTORY.

Bowers was a 4-star recruit (94 Prospect Grade).

& he led Georgia in receiving ALL 3 SEASONS he played for them.

Bowers put up an insane 56/882/13 receiving (3.01 YPRR; 91.6 PFF Receiving Grade) + another 4/56/1 rushing as a TRUE FRESHMAN.

1,000+ yards & double-digit TD’s as a sophomore (63/942/7 receiving + 9/109/3 rushing; 2.37 YPRR; 90.0 PFF Receiving Grade).

& he still led Georgia in receiving with 56/714/6 (2.65 YPRR; 87.1 PFF Receiving Grade) + 6/28/1 rushing as a junior despite dealing with injury & only playing in 10 games.

Bowers was extremely efficient & averaged a healthy 14.5 YPR on 175 career receptions.

He posted a 27.2% College Dominator Rating.

& averaged 2.64 YPRR for his career (the highest figure for any RD1 TE EVER).

Bowers averaged an insane 8.5 YAC/reception for his career & forced 10+ missed tackles every season.

Bowers is also an early-declare. & a RD1 NFL Draft pick (13th overall).

The only other TE’s drafted Top-15 overall in the past 20 years are: Kyle Pitts, TJ Hockenson, Eric Ebron, Vernon Davis, & Kellen Winslow Jr.

Next Gen Stats has Bowers graded as the #1 Prospect in this class – with the same grade as Caleb Williams (96).

We don’t have any official athletic testing figures, but Bowers was recorded at 21.4 MPH on-field at Georgia, faster than any NFL TE in the last 3 seasons.

There isn’t a single box he *doesn’t* check.

Here’s how Bowers’ prospect profile compares to the current batch of Top Dynasty TE’s (in order of draft capital).

You can debate whether Bowers or Pitts is the greatest TE prospect of all-time, but I think it’s clear the conversation should strictly be between the two of them.

Pitts & Bowers are two different types of TE’s however, with Bowers excelling specifically as a tackle-breaker/YAC-threat.

I would consider Bowers’ game to be more “QB-proof,” although he did receive a noticeably lower NFL.com Grade from Lance Z than Pitts did.

My comp for Bowers would be Sam LaPorta on NFL Street “Gamebreaker” Mode.

I expect Bowers to be valued as the Dynasty TE1 at some point in his career.

& I would not let the LV landing spot deter me ONE BIT.

Bowers just turned 21 in December & he has a long career of dominance ahead of him.

If you miss out on Brock Bowers – turn your attention towards Sir Benjamin Sinnott.

Sinnott is the definition of a steady-climber.

Sinnott walked on at Kansas State & redshirted as a true freshman in 2020.

He was utilized mostly as a blocker as a sophomore in 2021 (just 2 receptions for 15 yards on 169 snaps).

But he started as a junior & finished 4th on the team in receiving (31/447/4; 1.39 YPRR; 69.7 PFF Receiving Grade).

Sinnott then led Kansas State in receiving as a senior (49/676/6; 2.02 YPRR; 80.9 PFF Receiving Grade).

Although Sinnott failed to hit the career 1.80+ YPRR benchmark we look for (Sinnott’s career 1.61 YPRR would be the lowest of any Top-12 TE other than Jake Ferguson), the TE position has one of the tougher learning curves of any position, & Sinnott did show an upwards trajectory (I would rather a TE who flashed 2.00+ YPRR while leading his team in his final season than a TE who simply averaged 1.61 YPRR every year for 4-consecutive seasons).

To Sinnott’s defense, he did hit the other benchmarks we look for:

• 22.5% Dominator Rating
• 81.0 PFF Receiving Grade
• 6.13 NFL.com Grade

Sinnott joins: Maxx Williams, Hunter Henry, Gerald Everett, Mike Gesicki, Dallas Goedert, Cole Kmet, Pat Freiermuth, Trey McBride, Michael Mayer, & Sam LaPorta as RD2 TE’s in the last decade with a 20%+ College Dominator Rating.

Sinnott compared himself to LaPorta & I don’t think that’s totally unfair.

Sinnott averaged a healthy 13.9 YPR for his career.

& he flashed excellent tackle-breaking ability (14 MTF on just 49 receptions in 2023), just like LaPorta.

Sinnott’s also an above-average athlete (4.68 40, 4.23 shuttle, 40″ vertical), although he doesn’t have LaPorta’s raw speed (4.59).

Sinnott’s also highly-drafted (RD2, 53rd overall).

Sinnott is the ONLY TE other than Vernon Davis to post a 40″+ vertical at 250+ pounds & get drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft.

Just based on his RD2 DC, Sinnott has a 40%+ chance of producing at least one Top-12 finish.

It would not surprise me one bit if Sinnott becomes the #2 target in WAS behind Terry McLaurin (Jahan Dotson has failed to clear 50 receptions, 600 yards, or 1.50 YPRR in either of his first 2 NFL seasons).

I have him aggressively-ranked as the (SF) Rookie 2.07, & I would prioritize drafting him in that range on TE-needy teams.

My comp for Sinnott would be something of a “middle-man” between Sam LaPorta & Tucker Kraft.

I consider the 2024 Class to be a “2 TE Class” with Bowers & Sinnott being the two “solid” bets for production.

Although there are a few intriguing late-round options as well.

Day 3 picks at TE only have a 20% hit-rate (or lower).

So I would avoid investing too much “hopium” into any of this year’s options.

They’re “long-shots” to produce.

That being said, Ja’Tavion Sanders was a 5-star recruit (98 Prospect Grade), averaged 1.80 YPRR for his career, & posted solid PFF & NFL.com Grades. His lack of standout athleticism will likely limit his upside, however.

Erick All also flashed at times & Playerprofiler currently has him listed with a 31.9% Dominator Rating (I’m not sure this figure is correct; Playerprofiler’s numbers are sometimes off & updated/finalized at later dates, but as it stands, this is a great figure).

All also came close to our desired marks in YPRR, & PFF/NFL.com Grading. He dealt with season-ending injuries in back-to-back seasons & we don’t have any athletic testing on him, but based on his YPR/YAC/MTF figures, I would assume slightly above-average, non-elite athletic figures.

Theo Johnson’s production profile & grading just flat-out isn’t good, but his athleticism is borderline-elite.

Cade Stover was a former defensive-lineman (which is admittedly not encouraging), but he does have sneaky athleticism, a 20%+ Dominator Rating, the same career YPRR as Ben Sinnott, decent YAC-ability, & solid PFF/NFL.com Grading.

I’d definitely add some shares for free in post rookie draft waiver runs.

Jared Wiley is athletic & hit a 20%+ Dominator, but he offers almost zero YAC-ability & was not efficient (in either YPR or YPRR). Wiley was also below a 6.00 NFL.com Grade (no bueno).

It doesn’t make much sense to come up with “floor” comps for these players as they’re already considered “long-shots” & are more likely to be out of the league in 5 years than they are to sign second-contracts.

My upside comps would be:

• Austin Hooper (for Sanders)
• Logan Thomas (for All)
• Luke Musgrave (for Johnson)
• Tyler Higbee (for Stover)

I can’t find an upside comp I like for Wiley so I’m not going to force one.

Tip Reiman & AJ Barner were also drafted RD3/RD4, but their production profiles are so poor I would simply assume these players project as blocking-TE’s at the next level (correct me if I’m wrong).

If I had to pick one more “sleeper” it would be Jaheim Bell.

As a RD7 NFL Draft pick, the odds are super-stacked against Bell.

But Bell checks the athleticism boxes, was insanely-efficient (career 2.30 YPRR), & has elite tackle-breaking ability (career 9.2 YAC/reception, 13 MTF).

He may not be built for sustained success, but I could see Bell flashing in a limited role & seeing a value-spike (see rookie Chig Okonkwo).

I don’t really care about anyone else in this class (although Tanner McLachlan’s athleticism & tackle-breaking ability in a CIN offense kinda sorta barely intrigues me if Erick All doesn’t work out).

This is how the 2024 Rookie TE Class charts as a whole.

My Dynasty Rankings for each TE:

Bowers – TE3
Sinnott – TE13
Sanders – TE26
All – TE27
Johnson – TE28
Stover – TE38
Wiley – TE40
Bell – Unranked

Thanks for reading this far! If you enjoyed this thread, my entire TE Checklist, Top-250 Dynasty Rankings, & Newsletter are available on patreon.