Making the Case

• 4-Star Recruit
• True Freshman SEC Breakout
• 3-Down Profile
• Solid Athleticism
• Early-Declare
• Top-100 Pick
• High-Scoring Offense
• Travis Etienne
• “Backup” ADP

I believe Tank Bigsby is the highest-upside handcuff of 2023 & this article will explain why you should be buying him in both redraft & dynasty.

For starters, Tank Bigsby was a highly-graded recruit.

Both ESPN & 24/7 Sports ranked him as a 4-star RB.

Bigsby signed with Auburn, & also had offers from Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Ohio State, among others.

Bigsby also broke out as a true freshman, leading Auburn in rushing immediately.

As you can see from this thread on RB Breakout Age by @DFBeanCounter, we really like Age-18 breakouts.

(Especially in the SEC)

Bigsby led Auburn in rushing all 3 years he played for them.

& also led them in receptions his final year.

He was 1 of just 3 RB’s in this class to lead their team in both rushing yards + receptions in at least 1 season.

(The other RB’s being Jahmyr Gibbs & Deuce Vaughn).

On top of that, Bigsby declared-early for the NFL after 3 seasons at Auburn.

Roughly 25% of early-declare RB’s produce at least one RB1 finish.

(Chart via Sharp Football)

Bigbsy didn’t test as an *elite* athlete at the combine, but he weighed in at 6’0”/210 (big enough to handle a 3-down workload), & ended up with a “solid” overall RAS score (8.33/10).

The NFL also gave Bigsby a stamp of approval, taking him in the Top-100 picks of the 2023 NFL Draft (RD3, 88th overall).

Bigsby was also drafted to one of the best offenses in the NFL.

(JAX was 9th in PPG last year)

If Bigbsy landed on an open depth chart, with his profile – the dynasty community would be going bonkers for him.

He’d probably be going somewhere in the Dameon Pierce to Rachaad White ADP-range (6th-8th round startup range).

Instead, Bigsby landed on a depth chart with former RD1 pick Travis Etienne.

& that’s reflected in Bigsby’s RB39 dynasty/RB44 redraft ADP.

He’s priced as a true backup.

But is that all he’s capable of?

JAX Coach Doug Pederson has a long history of utilizing a committee-approach at the RB position.

& it’s unlikely JAX drafted Bigsby so high without intentions of giving him an immediate role.

I don’t view Bigsby as a threat to Travis Etienne’s starting role.

& I’m in on ETN too (at cost).

But just because you’re in on Travis Etienne, that doesn’t mean you’re not allowed to also be in on Tank Bigsby.

Non-Etienne JAX RB’s (James Robinson, Jamycal Hasty, Snoop Conner) combined for 139 carries, 37 targets, & 152.3 fantasy points last year.

Almost 10 PPG collectively.

Tank Bigsby is MUCH better than those RB’s.

I see A LOT of similarities between Tank Bigsby & Tony Pollard.

Both ~ 6’0”/210, ~ mid 4.5 speed, capable receivers, drafted RD3/4 (behind a RD1 RB).

I could see Bigsby following a similar career-path & starting in a few years after producing as a quality backup.

That type of bet can require a bit of patience.

Pollard went from 101 touches as a rookie, to 129 in YR2, to 169 in YR3, before breaking out fully (232 touches) in YR4.

But why wouldn’t you want to BUY at the bottom before that climb begins?

Pollard might have only provided a bit of standalone value his first few years, but he was also an auto-start RB1 handcuff anytime Zeke was out.

Pollard had 22.3 & 31.2-point games during the fantasy playoffs each of his first 2 seasons.

Pollard’s dynasty price tag has also risen every single year.

If you had bought him when he was priced as a true backup, you would’ve gotten a much better deal than if you had bought him after his 2nd, 3rd, or 4th season.

(Pollard’s lifetime market value chart via KeepTradeCut).

Bigsby posses similar auto-start RB1 handcuff-upside if Travis Etienne is forced to miss any time.

& I expect Bigsby’s role (& dynasty value) to increase with each passing year.

I don’t expect Travis Etienne to fall off a cliff efficiency-wise like Ezekiel Elliot eventually did.

But Zeke was still commanding volume regardless (296, 284, & 248 touches the last 3 years), & that didn’t stop Pollard’s role from growing.

If Tank Bigsby is a really good player (I think all evidence points to that), his role should continue to grow, regardless of Travis Etienne.

ETN’s contract is also up at the end of 2024 (with a team option for 2025).

There’s a possibility JAX elects to let him walk & let someone else pay him.

& if they opt to pay ETN?

Bigsby should eventually get a chance to hit the FA market himself.

The path to a starting role for Bigsby is NOT immediately clear.

& it may be a bit of a slow-burn before the payoff.

But that’s priced in.

Tank Bigsby should still provide *some* standalone value, while maintaining ELITE handcuff-upside in one of the league’s best offenses.

I believe his value continues to climb.

& I would prefer to buy what I believe can be a future high-level starter, NOW, while he’s priced as a true backup.

I would start by simply drafting Bigsby at his RB39 dynasty/RB44 redraft ADP.

I would also try to trade “bad” starting WR’s (like Kadarius Toney, Gabriel Davis, Courtland Sutton) for Bigsby, or Bigsby+

Same goes for “bad” TE’s like Dalton Schultz & Cole Kmet.

I think you can also sell other projected committee-RB’s (like James Cook, Isiah Pacheco, Brian Robinson, AJ Dillon) for Bigsby+

Or execute “small swaps” (selling WR20 for WR24 + Bigsby, for example).

You shouldn’t have to pay much at Bigsby’s current ADP.

Take advantage of the fact he’s still viewed as a clear backup to Travis Etienne.

& add one of the highest-upside handcuffs in 2023 to your rosters on the cheap.