Making the Case

Making The Case For Rashod Bateman

• College Dominator
• Early-Breakout
• Early-Declare
• Underrated Athlete
• RD1 pick
• YR1 NFL Producer
• Reception Perception
• Contested-Catch Ability
• Injury-Deflated Outlook
• Situational Discount
• WR27 Price Tag

[A THREAD]

Rashod Bateman is an often-hyped yet polarizing player in the dynasty community. I’m here to tell you why the hype is justified – & why Rashod Bateman is STILL undervalued.

For starters, he was INCREDIBLY productive in college. He broke out as a true freshman at MIN (93rd percentile breakout age). & produced all 3 years – finishing his best season with a 98th percentile target share. He also declared early.

A few people expressed disappointment when he measured in smaller than expected at his pro day. (6’0 3/8”, 190) But there’s nothing wrong with that size, & he showed sneaky athleticism with a 4.43 Pro Day 40 (4.48 adjusted) & 36” vertical.

Entering the NFL with a spotless analytical profile & underrated set of physical tools – he got the final stamp of approval when BAL selected him in RD1.

It didn’t take long for his talent to translate to the NFL either. He was an off-season standout – getting the best of the team’s starting corners on multiple occasions.

Unfortunately, Bateman suffered a groin injury which required surgery, & he missed the rest of training camp, all of the preseason, & the first 5 weeks of the regular season. It cost him valuable reps with QB Lamar Jackson.

Still, Bateman performed immediately upon his return – earning 6 targets in his NFL debut, WK6 vs LAC.

His first 4 games in the NFL he put up:

4/29 on 6 targets
3/80 on 6 targets
5/52 on 8 targets
6/80 on 8 targets

Playing only 65%, 63%, 66%, & 55% of the snaps. Coming off injury.

In his 5th game, Tyler Huntley stepped in at QB, & Bateman saw another 6 targets, putting up 3/29 on 70% of the snaps. Then he (inexplicably) played just 44% & 45% of the snaps the next two games, finishing with two of his worst outputs: 4/31 on 4 targets & 0/0 on 1 target.

BAL quickly corrected that error, playing him 65% of the snaps the following game (WK14 vs CLE). & Bateman delivered with his best game of the year: 7/103 on 8 targets.

Unfortunately, Lamar got hurt & missed the rest of the year. WK15 vs GB, Bateman put up just 1/5 on 2 targets – with Huntley at QB. But he played 93% of the snaps – indicating he was finally returning to health/settling into the offense (3 weeks before the end of the regular season).

WK16 vs CIN, he put up 4/26 & a TD on 5 targets – with Josh Johnson at QB. & played over 80% of the snaps for the second consecutive game.

WK17, he put up 7/58 on 10 targets – with Tyler Huntley back at QB. & again played over 80% of the snaps.

WK18 (with Huntley still at QB), Bateman put up 2/22 on 4 targets –  finishing above 80% of the snaps in each of the last 4 games – after not topping 70% in any of the first 8.

He had 6+ targets in every game where he played at least 50% of the snaps & Lamar was at QB. & finished his rookie season with 46/515/1 on 68 targets in 12 games.

Since 2000, 31 RD1 WR’s earned 68+ targets in their first 12 games. 1 had career-ending injuries (. 1 was suspended. Of the other 29:

15/29 hit 1,000+ yards YR2
16/29 (w/ Ridley full-season pace)

19/29 hit 900+ yards YR2
21/29 (w/ Ridley/Harvin full-season paces)

23/29 hit 800+ yards YR2 (w/ Roy Williams pace)

That gives Rashod Bateman roughly ~ a 79% chance of hitting 800+ yards in YR2; ~ a 72% chance at hitting 900+ yards in YR2; ~ a 55% chance of hitting 1,000+ yards in YR2. & his odds might be even better considering all of the other evidence.

On top of elite route-running – Bateman was also fantastic in contested situations. He caught 10/15 contested-catch targets as a rookie. That’s the 6th best contested-catch % among WR’s with 15+ contested targets, according to PFF. 7th best according to PlayerProfiler.

Check out this film breakdown by @JetpackGalileo.

This as a 21/22-year old rookie, coming off a major injury.

From every angle – Rashod Bateman looks like the COMPLETE package. So why’s he still only valued as the Dynasty WR27? Even after positive confirmation YR1?

One reason is people still perceive BAL as a “bad situation” for receivers. People consider them a “run-heavy” offense. But does the data support that narrative?

BAL’s offense took a major leap forward this year, finishing 9th (!!) in passing attempts (35.9 per-game). & they weren’t even pass-heavy. They were only 22nd in pass % (56.3%) – below-average. That % could easily repeat – or go up.

JK Dobbins & Gus Edwards return, but Dobbins is a great receiver & Gus will be a 27-year old backup – & both are coming off major injuries.

Meanwhile, Lamar & the passing offense have progressed another year – & go into YR5 with Mark Andrews, YR4 with Hollywood, & YR2 with Rashod Bateman. They could EASILY repeat their pass totals from 2021 – or increase them.

They profile very similarly to BUF – who finished 7th in passing attempts (37.7 per-game) while ranking 15th in pass % (59.2%). BUF in 2021 – 4450 Passing Yards BAL in 2021 – 4267 Passing Yards Do you consider BUF a “bad” situation?

Lamar Jackson’s season-high is 36 passing TD’s in 15 games. Josh Allen’s is 37 in 16. Lamar Jackson averaged 260 passing YPG in his 11 full starts this year. Josh Allen averaged 259. The situations are VERY similar.

Now ask yourself – does it matter to BUF’s receivers whether Josh Allen has 1/4 of BUF’s rushing attempts, 1/2 of them, or all of them? As long as they’re 7th in passing attempts? His level of rushing work shouldn’t matter, right?

It shouldn’t. & it shouldn’t matter to BAL’s receivers either. Whether Lamar has 1/4 of BAL’s rushing attempts, 1/2 of them, or all of them. If BAL is 9th in passing attempts again – or higher – it’s a GREAT situation. Bottom-line.

That leaves ZERO reason to discount Rashod Bateman (or any BAL pass-catcher, really).

That means Rashod Bateman should still be valued where he began – alongside the likes of Devonta Smith & Elijah Moore. Sniffing the Top-50 Overall Dynasty Rankings. Yet he’s valued outside the Top-75.

I have Bateman > Michael Pittman, Jerry Jeudy, & ARSB – yet the market says you can sell them for Bateman+ I have Bateman > Keenan Allen, Mike Evans, & D-Hop – yet the market says you can sell them for Bateman+

I’d take him over every other value-adjacent player on KTC.

Whether via startup or trade – Rashod Bateman is a MUST-TARGET WR heading into 2022.