Making the Case

Jun 10, 2024

Making The Case For Nico Collins

  • Highly-Recruited
  • Collegiately-Productive
  • Athletic
  • Top-100 NFL Draft Pick
  • Upwards NFL Trajectory
  • Underrated YR2
  • LEGIT YR3 Breakout
  • ELITE Peripherals
  • COMPLETE WR Skillset
  • Tied to CJ Stroud

Nico Collins’ YR3 breakout (80/1297/8) was NO FLUKE.

This article will cover all of the reasons why he should be viewed as HOU’s WR1.

For starters, Nico Collins didn’t just come out of nowhere.

Nico was a highly-recruited player coming out of high-school (4-star recruit; 92 Prospect Grade).

Nico also produced early in his college career – leading Michigan in receiving yards (38/632/6) as a sophomore.

Playerprofiler has him listed with a 78th percentile breakout age (19.5).

Nico also led Michigan in receiving YPG as a junior (37/729/7 total).

(He opted out of his senior season due to the COVID pandemic)

Collins put up solid athletic scores at his Pro Day (4.45 40 & 37.5” vertical at 6’4”/215).

He was also drafted relatively-high in the NFL Draft (RD3, 89th overall).

Nico was in a terrible situation as a rookie (Tyrod Taylor & Davis Mills started 11 & 6 games as HOU went 4-13) – but Nico still managed to put up 33/446/1 in 14 games.

HOU was terrible again in Nico’s 2nd season (Davis Mills, Kyle Allen, & Jeff Driskel started at QB as the team went 3-13-1) – but Collins managed to take another step forward (posting 37/481/2 on 66 targets in 10 games; a pace of over 800 yards & 110 targets as a 2nd year player, in a bad offense).

The raw numbers didn’t stand out, but Nico’s peripherals (1.68 YPRR, 72.0 PFF Receiving Grade) were solid.

Nico also led ALL NFL WR’s in contested-catch success-rate (12/16; 75%).

Collins took a MAJOR leap in YR3 with rookie QB CJ Stroud under center – posting 80/1297/8 (despite missing 2 games & playing just 3 snaps in another).

Nico’s peripherals (3.10 YPRR, 90.6 PFF Receiving Grade) were also ELITE. The ONLY WR’s with a better PFF Receiving Grade last year:

  • Tyreek Hill
  • Brandon Aiyuk
  • CeeDee Lamb
  • Justin Jefferson
  • Jaylen Waddle
  • Amon-Ra St. Brown

The ONLY WR to average more YPRR last year:

  • Tyreek Hill

Since 2010 – the ONLY other WR’s to average 3.00+ YPRR on 400+ routes are:

  • Victor Cruz
  • Andre Johnson
  • Julio Jones (3X)
  • Cooper Kupp
  • Tyreek Hill (2X)
  • Brandon Aiyuk

Nico also won in a variety of different ways.

He caught 7/13 (53.8%) of his contested-targets (8th among qualifying WR’s).

He averaged 6.9 YAC/reception (5th among qualifying WR’s).

The ONLY other WR to average 6.0+ YAC/reception on an 11.0+ ADOT was George Pickens.

Nico had 21 missed-tackles forced on 80 receptions (3rd most missed-tackles forced of ANY WR behind only Tyreek Hill & Deebo Samuel).

Collins was also charted as an ELITE route-runner.

Nico posted 90th+ percentile success-rates vs both Man & Press (via Reception Perception).

  • 94th percentile vs Man
  • 62nd percentile vs Zone
  • 96th percentile vs Press

These were better numbers than Stefon Diggs posted last year:

  • 76th percentile vs Man
  • 67th percentile vs Zone
  • 75th percentile vs Press

As well as better than Tank Dell:

  • 74th percentile vs Man
  • 40th percentile vs Zone
  • 53rd percentile vs Press

Nico’s 2023 profile is actually strikingly similar to AJ Brown’s 2022 profile:

  • 96th percentile vs Man
  • 79th percentile vs Zone
  • 96th percentile vs Press

Nico averaged more fantasy PPG than AJB last season (17.4-17.0 PPG; 18.4-18.1 PPG if you remove the game each left early to injury), he posted a better PFF Receiving Grade (90.6-90.4) than AJB last season, & he’s 2 years younger (27-25) than AJB…

Collins also just signed a 3YR/$72.5M extension tying him to CJ Stroud through the prime of his career.

& HOU will likely pass the ball even more in 2024 (they were just 15th in the NFL with 34.1 passing attempts per-game last year).

Add it all up & Nico Collins is positioned for ANOTHER WR1 PPG finish (he was WR7 in PPG last year).

EVERY OTHER WR under the age of 30 to average 17.0+ PPG last year (CeeDee, ARSB, Jefferson, Puka, AJB) is priced as a Top-8 Dynasty WR.

Nico is currently priced WR18 in Dynasty.

I think you can argue Nico Collins as high as the Dynasty WR9 TODAY – ahead of WR’s like Tyreek Hill, Brandon Aiyuk, Chris Olave.

& I’d happily pivot off those players for Nico+

I’d also look to SELL unproven rookies (like Brian Thomas Jr. & Ladd McConkey) + some grease (a future 2?) for Nico.

I expect Nico Collins to cement himself as HOU’s WR1 & a Top-10 Dynasty WR in 2024.