Making the Case

✅ Highly-Recruited
✅ Early-Breakout
✅ Highly-Productive
✅ Early-Declare
✅ Elite YAC-Threat
✅ Good In Contested-Situations
✅ Above-Average Route-Runner
✅ Excellent Athlete
✅ Top-40 NFL Draft Pick
✅ Situational Discount

Luther Burden III is THE most undervalued player in 2025 rookie drafts.

Let me tell you why.

For starters – Luther Burden III was a 5-Star Recruit (98 Prospect Grade).

Burden also broke out as a true freshman at Missouri – tying for the team lead in TD’s (9).

Burden was also HIGHLY productive as a sophomore – posting over 1,200 receiving yards.

The only other SEC WR’s to post 1,200+ receiving yards as a freshman or sophomore:

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Alshon Jeffery
• Mike Evans
• Jerry Jeudy
• AJ Brown

Burden averaged 3.29 YPRR & posted a 91.0 PFF Receiving Grade as a sophomore.

He had the 3rd-highest PFF Receiving Grade in the entire nation – behind only Malik Nabers (& Malik Washington).

Even in a “down” junior year (61/676/6 receiving + 9/115/2 rushing) – Burden still led all NCAA WR’s with 30 broken tackles.

On just 61 receptions.

Burden is an ELITE YAC-threat.

Burden averaged a broken tackle every other reception & became the first WR in PFF history with 30+ broken tackles on 80 or fewer targets.

“The only other SEC WR with 30+ forced missed tackles on receptions in a single season over the last five years is Malik Nabers.”

Burden also declared-early for the NFL after his junior season.

A lot of people want to portray Burden as a “gadget-player” who generated most of his production from “manufactured touches” – but Burden also excelled downfield.

Burden posted 98.0+ PFF Receiving Grades (Top-15 amongst 250 WR’s) on intermediate (10-19 yards) & deep routes (20+ yards) in 2023.

752 out of his 1,212 receiving yards as a sophomore (62%) came on passes 10+ yards downfield.

Burden’s also great in contested-situations (56.5% & 54.5% contested-catch success-rates in 2 seasons as starter).

& he’s an above-average route-runner (68th, 55th, & 59th percentile vs Man, Zone, & Press via Reception Perception).

To quote Matt Harmon – “Burden is an excellent example of a ‘grade to the flashes’ player. If you just do that, you can see some real Malik Nabers-like ability in his route running from the slot against man coverage on big-boy routes. Nabers was a slot-heavy receiver, and very few cared. However, Burden doesn’t possess nearly the consistent drive and fire as a separator of Nabers. There were evident half-hearted efforts from Burden on the field on plays where the ball wasn’t going his way. If his motor was always running, I’m convinced he could have blown past the listed success rates.”

If Burden can harness his elite athletic ability (4.41 40 at 6’0”/206) & become a more consistent route-runner – the sky is the limit.

Burden was not drafted RD1 – but he was still drafted 39th overall.

The last 4 WR’s to get drafted RD2 (Top-40 overall) after posting more than 3.00 YPRR in their best collegiate season:

• Tee Higgins
• Elijah Moore
• Ladd McConkey
• Luther Burden III

A ceiling case still exists for Burden – even as a RD2 NFL Draft pick.

& while people are upset with the landing spot, I’d argue Burden landed in a great one – with a creative playcaller & a potential cornerstone QB.

Everybody was excited for Rome Odunze & DJ Moore (whichever one ended up playing in the slot) when Ben Johnson signed as CHI’s HC…

But now that Luther Burden III (primarily a slot-WR) has been drafted by the team – it’s bad news??

In 3 seasons with Ben Johnson calling plays – Amon-Ra St. Brown posted:

⁃ 106 receptions
⁃ 119 receptions
⁃ 115 receptions

You best believe Ben Johnson knows how to get the most out of a tough slot WR with YAC-ability…

Do NOT be surprised if Burden eventually emerges as the featured weapon in Chicago.

Despite all of this – Luther Burden III has just a 2.03 overall ADP in Superflex rookie drafts.

Outside the Top-75 overall in Dynasty.

This is a blessing from the Gods.

I would happily trade back from the 1.07-1.10 range & nab Luther Burden+

I would also be aggressively trading up from the late-2nd to draft Burden in the early-2nd (trading 2.10 + late-projected 2026 2 for 2.03, for example).

Luther Burden III should be your #1 priority in the late-1st/early-2nd round range of rookie drafts.

Now is the time to BUY.