Making the Case

• Productive
• Efficient
• Tackle-Breaker
• Workhorse Build
• Early-Declare
• Draft Capital
• Ambiguous Backfield
• RB-Centric Offense
• Discounted ADP

Kendre Miller is one of my favorite RB’s in both redraft (RB45/137.5 overall ADP) & dynasty (RB29/104 overall ADP).

& I’m very interested “buying the dip” off the back of recent Alvin Kamara “news.”

This article will cover why.

For starters, let’s talk about the talent.

When Kendre Miller signed with TCU, he wasn’t even “the best” RB recruit they signed.

That was Zach Evans – a 5-star recruit & the #2 RB in the 2020 recruiting class (behind only Bijan Robinson).

Still, as true freshman – Kendre was able to earn the same number of rushing attempts (54) in the same number of games (9) as Evans.

Averaging a ridiculous 7.2 YPC.

As a sophomore, Miller ran “behind” Evans (who had averaged an even better 7.7 YPC as a freshman).

Still, Kendre put up another 623 rushing yards on 83 attempts, for an insane 7.5 YPC.

He also tied for the team lead in receptions (12) amongst RB’s.

Miller averaged an absurd 7.2 & 7.5 YPC in his first two seasons – giving him 2 of the top-6 marks in TCU history.

As a junior – he took 224 carries for 1,399 yards (6.2 YPC) & 17 TD’s.

Not only did Kendre show an ability to handle a high-volume workload, but he was also EXTREMELY efficient & explosive with his carries.

He averaged 6.7 YPC for his career.

Was the only player in college football to have 3 TD’s of 33+ yards in the same game as a sophomore (via 24/7 Sports).

& had the 2nd highest breakaway % (44.8%) last year of any RB drafted in 2023 (via PFF).

Kendre was also EXCELLENT at breaking tackles & creating yardage after-contact.

(See him in the upper right corner of this chart)

Miller was so good in his 3 years at TCU that he decided to declare-early for the NFL Draft.

Early-declare = higher hit-rate.

Roughly 25% of early-declare RB’s put up at least one RB1 finish.

(Chart courtesy of @SharpFootball)

Kendre didn’t test at the combine due to an injury, but he weighed in at 5’11”/215 – ideal “workhorse” size.

& then he was drafted in the top-75 picks (71st overall).

There have been 25 early-declare RB’s drafted picks 33-75 in the NFL Draft since 2010.

19/25 (76%) put up 150+ fantasy points or 10+ PPG as a rookie.

10 PPG last year would’ve been – at worst – the RB36 in PPG.

Kendre’s an average receiver (career .76 YPRR; 97th out of 173 qualifying RB’s in PFF receiving grade in 2022).

& he’s NOT going to take that role away from Alvin Kamara (who’s hit or paced for 75+ targets every year).

BUT, Jamaal Williams has NEVER been an efficient rusher (below 6.0 YPC every year in college; below 4.0 YPC in 3/6 NFL seasons, never above 4.3 YPC, never above 2.0+ YAC in any season).

& although I think Kamara is still a capable rusher (2.0 yards after-contact/attempt in 2022, 11th in the NFL) – there are also signs of decline (-.02 RYOE/attempt in 2022, 37th out of 48 RB’s; 3.7 & 4.0 YPC the last two years).

I’d argue Kendre Miller is already the best RUSHER on the Saints – TODAY.

& I’d argue the Saints think so too based on the fact they spent the 71st overall pick on him – even with Kamara & Williams already on the roster.

There’s a CLEAR path to Kendre Miller leading New Orleans in carries IMMEDIATELY as a rookie.

& there’s STILL a possibility (if not likelihood?) that Kamara is suspended.

Kendre’s price WILL rise if (when?) that happens.

Even if Kamara isn’t suspended…

We’ve seen successful 2-headed (Kamara/Ingram) & even 3-headed (Thomas/Bush/Ivory; Thomas/Bush/Bell; Thomas/Sproles/Ingram) backfields in NO before.

The Saints could also find themselves “forced” into a more RB-centric approach.

Beyond Chris Olave is: Juwan Johnson (an UDFA TE), Foster Moreau (a RD4 TE who hasn’t topped 420 yards & is recovering from Hodgkin’s lymphoma), Rashid Shaheed (another UDFA), & Michael Thomas.

If MT doesn’t stay healthy…

(Maybe even if he does)…

NO really doesn’t have any other legitimate receiving weapons (other than the potentially suspended Alvin Kamara).

It shouldn’t shock anyone if they go RB-centric & *multiple* NO RB’s have standalone value in 2023.

& beyond 2023?

Williams & Kamara will both be 28 years old this season, 29 years old next year.

It’s very likely their roles continue to shrink, while Kendre’s continues to grow.

Historically speaking – it’s not a bad idea to target talented RB’s in ambiguous backfields.

Which is why I’m BUYING into that uncertainty & targeting BOTH Alvin Kamara (at a RB33 redraft/dynasty pricing) AND Kendre Miller (at a RB45 redraft/RB29 dynasty pricing).

It doesn’t cost much to draft Kendre Miller, especially in redraft – & it might not pay off much either.

BUT – it might pay off A LOT.

Kendre Miller has the profile.

He has the size to handle 200+, 250+, possibly 275+ carries.

He has the draft capital.

& he’s in an ambiguous backfield.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he “breaks out” immediately as a rookie.

So how to acquire him?

Well, you can start by simply drafting him at ADP.

I would also trade any future 2 for him if someone wants to panic-sell.

Mainly, I would try to sell higher-priced (but shaky) RB assets like Dameon Pierce, Isiah Pacheco, Cam Akers, & James Cook for Kendre Miller+