Making the Case

• 5-Star Recruit
• Immaculate Collegiate Passer
• Top-12 Pick
• Elite Rusher
• Playmaking Ability
• Situation-Deflated Outlook
• Improved WR Unit
• Fantasy Points
• Uncertainty-Discount

Justin Fields is THE QB to target in 2023 & I’m going to tell you why.

Fields was always an ELITE player coming into the NFL.

He was a 5-star recruit & the #2 overall recruit in his class (behind only Trevor Lawrence).

In his first season as a starter at Ohio St. (as a sophomore) – Fields completed 67.2% of his passes for an ABSURD 41-3 TD-INT ratio.

& also had another 137 carries & 10 rushing TD’s.

Fields only played 8 games as a JR. – but completed 70.2% of his passes for a 22-6 TD-INT ratio.

Along with another 81 carries & 5 rushing TD’s.

He also had a DOMINANT 6 passing-TD performance (22/28, 385 yards) against Trevor Lawrence & Clemson in the Sugar Bowl.

Fields then made then obvious decision to declare-early for the NFL.

Finishing his collegiate career with a 68.4% completion percentage & 67-9 TD-INT ratio.

At every point – he was viewed as being in lockstep with Trevor Lawrence as a prospect.

Fields “slid” in the NFL Draft – but he was still the 12th overall pick in a strong QB class.

He was drafted to an EXTREMELY POOR CHI situation (as was Lawrence in JAX).

With only the rotting corpse of Allen Robinson (who also got injured) & Darnell Mooney at WR.

Mooney & TE Cole Kmet were Fields’ top-2 target-earners in YR1.

Both Justin Fields (& Trevor Lawrence) were BAD as passers as rookies.

7-10 TD-INT for Fields.
12-17 TD-INT for Lawrence.

Despite being prolific collegiate passers.

Lawrence got weapons (in the form of Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, & Zay Jones) in YR2. & we saw what those upgrades meant for Lawrence last year as he put up 4,113 passing yards & a 25-8 TD-INT ratio in YR2 – returning to his prolific collegiate form.

It was a reminder to post-rookie season doubters (including myself) that sometimes we need to give these prolific collegiate passers some slack early in their NFL careers.

& that includes Justin Fields.

Fields DIDN’T get any weapons upgrades in YR2.

CHI let Allen Robinson walk & opted to only bring in veterans like Byron Pringle & Dante Pettis.

The only WR they drafted was 5th year super-senior Velus Jones (in RD3).

YUCK!

Fields struggled as a passer again in YR2.

BUT – he improved his:

• Completion % (from 58.9% to 60.4%)
• Y/A (from 6.9 to 7.1)
• TD-INT ratio (from 7-10 to 17-11)
• QBR (from 26.4 to 54.0)

& showed TREMENDOUS playmaking ability as a rusher.

Fields had 160 rushing attempts for 1,143 yards (7.1 YPC) & another 8 rushing TD’s.

The 2nd most rushing yards by a QB in NFL HISTORY – behind only Lamar Jackson (1,206).

After WK4 – only Patrick Mahomes (25.7 PPG) & Jalen Hurts (25.5 PPG) averaged more fantasy PPG than Fields (24.1 PPG).

Fields’ rushing ability also has REAL NFL value.

CHI scored 33, 29, 32, 30, & 24 points against NE, DAL, MIA, DET, & ATL over a 5-game stretch last year.

& Fields didn’t have more than 179 passing yards in any of those games.

Somehow CHI lost all of those games – but we’ve seen Justin Fields can lead not just a competent, but HIGH-SCORING offense.

Fields reminds me a little bit of Jalen Hurts pre-2022 (who I wrote a case FOR last year).

Fields hasn’t shown quite the same polish as a passer at the NFL level that Hurts did – but PHI was also a losing team & Hurts went 1-3 his first year, & was consistently knocked for his completion % (even after YR2).

Both QB’s add a SIGNIFICANT dimension to their NFL offense, showed an ability to lead a high-scoring unit, had shown glimpses as a passer at some point (in YR2 for Hurts; throughout his entire collegiate career for Fields), & got a true WR1 in YR3.

I believe Justin Fields is on a similar ascension to the top.

DJ Moore is a legitimate WR1 (& we’ve already seen glimpses this preseason).

YR3 with Mooney & Kmet.
YR2 with Chase Claypool.

I think we’ll see flashes of the prolific passer Justin Fields was in college.

Does that mean he’s going to be one of the best passers in the NFL? No.

(& I certainly wasn’t expecting that for Hurts either when I wrote a case for him).

But Fields can be capable.

& add an important dimension as a rusher.

& he’s going to score a TON of fantasy points while doing it.

He averaged 24.1 PPG behind only Mahomes & Hurts after WK4 last year & scored over 300 points in 15 games.

Just wait until the passing game stabilizes.

& the best part is that there’s still an “uncertainty discount” because people aren’t 100,000% positive that he’ll be CHI’s long-term starter.

While the top-4 QB’s (Mahomes, Hurts, Allen, Lamar) are going in RD3…

You can take an elite TE like Mark Andrews there, or a potential Top-5 WR like Chris Olave or Calvin Ridley – & then still get Justin Fields in RD4.

I’ve been acquiring him all off-season in dynasty.

Fields is currently viewed as a “tier below” the other elite QB’s due to that long-term “uncertainty.”

& that allows you to add impact performers (like Derrick Henry), or future capital (like a 2024 1), or more when pivoting down from some of these other top QB’s.

I believe Justin Fields is going to erase that long-term “uncertainty” & by the end of the 2023 season he won’t be viewed as a “tier below” the other top QB’s in dynasty.

He’ll be viewed right alongside them.

I don’t think the window where you can get a free Derrick Henry (or 2024 1, or more) by pivoting “down” is going to last forever.

So I’m buying in now.

& planting my Flag on Justin Fields as “my guy” in 2023.