Making the Case

✅ Efficient Rusher

✅ Excellent After-Contact

✅ ELITE Tackle-Breaker

✅ Upwards Trajectory

✅ Receiving Upside

✅ Good System

✅ Deflated Price Tag

Jaylen Warren is one of my most-drafted RB’s this year.

Let me tell you why I believe he has a real shot to finishing as an RB1.

For starters – Jaylen Warren is an extremely efficient rusher.

He has averaged 4.9, 5.3, 4.3, & 4.5 YPC in 4 NFL seasons (career 4.7 YPC).

He ranks Top-40 all-time in career YPC amongst RB’s with 500+ carries.

He’s 8th in YPC since coming into the league in 2022.

Jaylen Warren is also excellent after-contact.

In 4 NFL seasons, Warren has ranked 21st (3.08), 3rd (3.64), 16th (3.21), & 24th (3.09) in YAC/attempt.

He leads ALL RB’s in missed-tackle rate during that timeframe.

Warren has exceeded Rico Dowdle’s career-best Rushing Grade (74.4) in 2 of the last 3 seasons.

& he’s a much better tackle-breaker (.276 vs .165 career MTF/attempt).

Jaylen Warren’s role has also grown consistently since entering the league as an UDFA.

He posted a career-high 251 touches last season.

Warren has also been heavily-involved as a receiver.

He has posted 28, 61, 38, & 40 receptions in 4 seasons.

& has had 45+ targets each of the last 3 seasons.

That makes Warren a PERFECT fit alongside Aaron Rodgers – who has no problem checking the ball down to his RB’s.

PIT ranked 2nd in the NFL in total RB targets (132) last year.

Kenneth Gainwell had 85 of those, but is no longer with the team – which means Jaylen Warren could easily post a career-high in targets.

Warren is a great receiving back, too.

Last year he ranked:

• 6th amongst RB’s in PFF Receiving Grade (84.4)
• 4th amongst RB’s in PFF Pass-Blocking Grade (70.7)

He’s significantly better than Rico Dowdle in that aspect – who last year ranked:

• 38th amongst RB’s in PFF Receiving Grade (55.9)
• 64th amongst RB’s in PFF Pass-Blocking Grade (24.6)

Targets are highly-valuable in fantasy – & are worth 2.75X as much as carries.

(Chart via PFF)

Warren is playing alongside the perfect QB to unleash his receiving upside.

PIT was already Top-5 in total RB fantasy points scored last year.

The 4 teams ahead of them all have a RB with a RD1 ADP this year:

1. DET (Gibbs)
2. SF (CMC)
3. ATL (Bijan)
4. BUF (James Cook)

Warren finished as the RB19 in PPG (13.6) last year – yet is only priced as the RB29 this year.

He’s the only RB to clear 13.0 PPG last year priced outside the Top-24 this year.

I’d argue the market is pricing him in the wrong direction.

Warren has a real chance to match or near his rushing totals from last year – while producing career-highs as a receiver.

If he can climb from 13.6 to 15+ PPG – he could legitimately finish as an RB1.