Making the Case

• ELITE College Producer
• ELITE Athlete
• Early-Declare
• RD1 Pick
• High-Powered Offense
• High-Quality QB Play
• Rookie WR Success
• Target-Competition
• WR30 ADP

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is a highly-prized dynasty asset.

I’m here to tell you why you should be drafting him in redraft too.

For starters, JSN is a truly ELITE prospect.

I would recommend reading this full thread by @dynasty_im on that topic first.

Not only was JSN an ELITE college producer (the ONLY RD1 WR to post a 90+ PFF Grade at 19 years old other than Ja’Marr Chase) – he’s also an ELITE athlete.

JSN’s 3.93 shuttle time is the FASTEST time by any WR since 2014.

The only other RD1 WR’s to run a sub-4.00 shuttle in the past 10 years:

• Ja’Marr Chase (3.99)
• Amari Cooper (3.98)
• Odell Beckham (3.94)
• Brandin Cooks (3.81)

As you can imagine, JSN decided to forgo his final year of collegiate eligibility.

He could’ve easily gone pro after his sophomore year if the NFL allowed it (similar to Ja’Marr Chase).

Early-declare = Higher Hit-rate

(Chart courtesy of Sharp Football)

JSN was also a 1st round pick.

He wasn’t a Top-10 pick (20th overall).

But neither was Justin Jefferson (22nd overall).

We shouldn’t nitpick that difference too much considering all of the other factors.

It also may have been a blessing in disguise.

Because JSN was drafted to a team that already had a good offense.

SEA was 10th in PPG (23.9) last year.

Now, SEA could be a GREAT offense.

Say what you will about Geno Smith’s early-career struggles – but he’s put together TWO consecutive seasons of high-level play.

68.4% completion, 702 passing yards, & a 5-1 TD-INT ratio in 4 games in 2021.

69.8% completion, 4,282 passing yards, & a 30-11 TD-INT ratio last year.

He led the ENTIRE NFL in completion % in 2022.

& finished 4th in passing TD’s.

Geno’s CLEARLY found himself in this system.

SEA’s also already dealing with injuries to basically every RB on their depth chart.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if they pass at their highest-rate in years.

It shouldn’t matter that JSN’s a rookie either.

A rookie has put up 1,000+ receiving yards in 4-consecutive seasons.

• AJ Brown (2019)
• Justin Jefferson (2020)
• Jaylen Waddle (2021)
• Kyle Pitts (2021)
• Ja’Marr Chase (2021)
• Chris Olave (2022)
• Garrett Wilson (2022)

Rookie WR’s are readier to play than ever.

The ONLY thing standing in the way of JSN putting together an elite rookie season is the presence of DK Metcalf & Tyler Lockett.

An admittedly legitimate barrier.

BUT – we saw Ja’Marr Chase break out alongside Tee Higgins & Tyler Boyd (who had 74/1091/6 & 67/828/5 during Chase’s rookie year).

So high-level target-competition doesn’t necessarily exclude a rookie breakout.

& any injury to DK or Lockett would basically ensure one.

The “downside” is also mostly priced-in at a WR30 price tag.

If JSN finishes as the WR36 it’s not gonna kill you.

But if he hits his ceiling?

There are few (if any) players left at his ADP with that level of upside.

None who match his talent-level.

At the end of the day – I don’t care that JSN’s a rookie.

I don’t care that he has target-competition either.

At a WR30 price tag…

I’ll take a chance on the ceiling.

I am 100% drafting JSN in 2023.