Making the Case
2023 | Making The Case For Greg Dulcich
- College Dominator
- Downfield Role
- Athletic (Enough)
- Draft Capital
- Rookie Production
- Improving System
- QB Play (?)
- Target-Competition (?)
- Discounted ADP
I believe Greg Dulcich is THE late-round TE of 2023.
I didn’t draft a ton of Dulcich as a rookie (because I had rose-colored glasses on for Albert O).
But I’ve been fully converted.
This article will explain WHY.
For starters, Dulcich was highly productive in college.
You’ll often hear that college production “doesn’t matter” for TE’s.
But not from me.
EVERY SINGLE TE currently valued Top-12 in dynasty had a College Dominator Rating 18% or higher.
Travis Kelce – 27.6%
Kyle Pitts – 24.1%
Mark Andrews – 18%
TJ Hockenson – 24%
George Kittle – 23.2%
Dallas Goedert – 30.7%
*Dalton Kincaid – 34.1%
Pat Freiermuth – 24.8%
Darren Waller – 32.1%
David Njoku – 24.6%
*Michael Mayer – 35.8%
*Sam LaPorta – 25.5%
14 of the Top-15 in dynasty ADP had an 18% Dominator, or higher – with only Chig Okonkwo (15.7%) below.
That suggests TE college production DOES MATTER.
Greg Dulcich (who had a 27.3% Dominator) checks that box emphatically.
Dulcich was also targeted on an extremely deep ADOT (which typically translates to more WR-like usage) – averaging an absurd 19.9 & 17.3 yards per-reception on 15.5 & 12.0 ADOT’s in his last 2 collegiate seasons.
Dulcich is by no means a “burner” – but he’s fast “enough” with 4.69 40 speed.
He also tested above-average in the vertical, broad jump, & 3-cone drill.
Overall, he’s more than athletic “enough.”
Dulcich was also drafted fairly high (RD3, 80th overall).
All in all, there isn’t a single “red flag” in his prospect profile.
It’s all green (& some yellow).
To build on a quality prospect profile – Dulcich put up fantastic rookie production.
Since the year 2000, only Kyle Pitts, Jeremy Shockey, Jordan Reed, & Evan Engram averaged more YPG as a rookie TE than Greg Dulcich (41.1 YPG).
Dulcich had 5+ targets in 6/10 games.
& he continued to operate on a significantly deep ADOT (12.7, 3rd deepest amongst all TE’s behind only Kyle Pitts & Darren Waller).
You’d think a rookie season like that would’ve sent his ADP skyrocketing…
But for whatever reason (injuries? incomplete rookie season? some vague comments from Sean Payton about “some” of Dulcich’s film being “tough”?) – Dulcich’s price has remained criminally low.
Dulcich currently has a TE13/132.9 overall redraft ADP & TE15/130 overall dynasty ADP.
Which is trending up after more recent comments regarding Dulcich & potential “joker” usage…
But it’s still FAR too low.
The significance of potential “joker” usage in a Sean Payton offense should not be undersold…
Especially if Payton can help rehabilitate Russell Wilson – who has 5 seasons with 30+ passing TD’s, including 40 passing TD’s just 2 years ago in 2020.
The target-competition behind Jerry Jeudy is also a bit shaky.
Courtland Sutton had his worst PFF receiving grade since his rookie season last year & the last Reception Perception report on him was not encouraging.
Tim Patrick is a 29-year old, former UDFA, who’s never topped 85 targets in a season, coming off an ACL tear.
Marvin Mims is an explosive deep-threat, but he’s also a rookie, & was not exactly a “high-volume” player in college.
It’s totally possible Greg Dulcich finishes 2nd in targets for the Broncos in 2023.
He only had a 3.5% pass-block rate as a rookie, so he very much fits the mold of a “big-WR.”
He has legitimate top-5 upside.
& I consider him to be THE late-round TE of 2023.
I would trade Chig Okonkwo for him.
I would trade two future 2’s for him.
I would trade Dalton Schultz + 3 for him.
Depending where the picks project, I’d sell TJ Hockenson + 2024 2 for Greg Dulcich + 2024 1.
I’d sell Cam Akers, Isiah Pacheco, & James Cook for Dulcich.
I’d sell Kadarius Toney & Gabe Davis for Dulcich.
I’d sell Alexander Mattison for Dulcich (& you can probably get Dulcich+)
At his current (cheap) ADP, there are a ton of ways to acquire him.
When targeting late-round TE’s in 2023 – Greg Dulcich should be your TOP priority.