Making the Case

Jun 17, 2024

Making The Case For Drake Maye

  • 5-Star Recruit
  • NFL Bloodline
  • Highly-Productive Starter
  • Rushing Ability
  • Early-Declare
  • Top-3 Draft Capital
  • Situational Discount
  • “Free Roll” YR1

I believe Drake Maye is currently one of the best values in both dynasty AND redraft.

This thread will cover all of the reasons why.

For starters, Drake Maye was a 5-star recruit (98 Prospect Grade).

He had the 3rd highest recruiting grade of ANY player in this rookie class (behind only Caleb Williams & Spencer Rattler – who both had 99 Prospect Grades).

Maye originally committed to Alabama before settling on UNC.

Drake Maye also comes from an NFL bloodline as his father Mark spent time on the Buccaneers’ roster after starting at UNC.

Drake’s brother (Luke) played basketball at UNC & was part of the 2017 National Championship team.

Drake didn’t play much as a true freshman at UNC (as QB Sam Howell was already entrenched as starter) – but Maye played well in his limited opportunities (completing 7/10 passes for 89 yards & a 1-0 TD ratio while rushing 6 times for 62 yards in 4 games).

Maye started as a sophomore & was absolutely electric.

He threw for 5 TD’s in his debut.

On the season, Maye completed 342/517 attempts (66.2% completion) for 4,321 passing yards (8.4 Y/A) & a 38-7 TD-INT ratio.

He also posted 184/698/7 as a rusher.

Maye LED THE NCAA in total offense (5,109).

Maye’s 3rd year was not quite as electric – but he still completed 269/425 attempts (63.3% completion) for 3,608 passing yards (8.5 Y/A) & a 24-9 TD-INT ratio.

Maye’s the ONLY QB in this class (other than Caleb Williams) to post an 89.0+ PFF Passing Grade in multiple seasons.

Maye also had the lowest career turnover-worthy throw % (2.1%) out of the Top-6 QB’s in this class.

Maye was also highly-productive as a rusher (again) in his final season – posting 112/449/9 on the ground.

This dual-threat skillset makes Maye a very exciting fantasy option…

Since 2000, 12 QB’s have posted 100+ rushing attempts in a collegiate season & gotten drafted Top-3 overall in the NFL Draft:

  • Michael Vick
  • Alex Smith
  • Vince Young
  • Cam Newton
  • Robert Griffin III
  • Marcus Mariota
  • Carson Wentz
  • Baker Mayfield
  • Kyler Murray
  • Joe Burrow
  • Trey Lance
  • Trevor Lawrence

Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, & Drake Maye join this list in 2024.

EVERY SINGLE ONE except Baker Mayfield & Trey Lance (10/12; 83.3%) has posted *at least* one TOP-12 PPG fantasy finish in the NFL.

7/12 (58.3%) have posted *at least* one TOP-5 PPG fantasy finish in the NFL.

Drake Maye is also an early-declare.

Early-declare QB’s have (vastly) outhit their late-declare counterparts – posting at least one QB2 finish 50% of the time, & at least one QB1 finish over 40% of the time.

(Data via SharpFootball)

Maye’s college production + early-declare status + draft capital place him in a special “bucket” of prospects.

BUT Maye remains incredibly cheap simply due to the fact he was drafted to a “bad situation” in NE.

He’s being drafted as the QB27/192 overall (RD16) in redraft on Underdog (practically free).

& as the QB18/50 overall in dynasty (via Dynasty Data Lab).

I even got him at 7.01 (73 overall) in one of my latest dynasty startups.

This is an EXCELLENT price to BUY at considering the ceiling + floor.

If Drake Maye struggles in YR1?

You’re pretty much guaranteed a “free roll.”

Just look at Bryce Young as an example.

Young is CURRENTLY valued QB20/72 overall in dynasty DESPITE AN AWFUL ROOKIE SEASON.

You can STILL cash-out for equivalent WR’s (like Jordan Addison, Deebo Samuel, JSN, Davante Adams, or Jayden Reed) TODAY.

That’s not a huge fall from QB18/50 overall (where Maye is currently valued) – alongside WR’s like DJ Moore, DK Metcalf, Zay Flowers.

But if Maye plays well his first year as a starter?

His YR2 Dynasty ADP could explode into the Top-15 overall picks (see Jordan Love) – alongside WR’s like Puka Nacua, Garrett Wilson, & AJB.

Maye’s “situation” also can really only get better – so it makes sense to BUY now while there’s still a situational-discount.

Add it all up & Drake Maye is a low-risk/high-upside investment.

I’d consider him a borderline MUST-DRAFT at his current ADP.

If he struggles – you can still flip him for 80 cents on the dollar next year.

If he plays well – his price tag could triple.