Making the Case

• Elite Athlete
• Proven Producer
• Repeat Performer
• Advanced Metrics
• Target Competition
• Injury-Deflated ADP
• Elite Ceiling

I believe Darren Waller is the BEST-VALUE TE in 2023.

This article will explain why.

For starters, Darren Waller is an elite athlete.

(6’6”/238, 4.46 40, 37” vertical).

He has the fastest combine 40 time (4.46) out of any of the Top-12 dynasty TE’s.

Waller also has *multiple* 1,000-yard seasons on his resume – including 107/1196/9 on 145 targets in 2020.

He finished 6th in the NFL in targets that year & averaged 17.4 fantasy PPG.

Being a repeat performer at TE is HUGE.

There have been 38 instances of a TE scoring 15+ PPG since the year 2000 & 28 of them were by the same 7 TE’s.

TE’s who have done it before are the most likely to do it again.

Injuries have prevented Waller from repeating the last 2 years, but he was still pacing for a full season of:

85/1027/3 on 143 targets in 2021.

60/824/6 on 91 targets last year (& that’s including 4 games under 70% of the snaps).

Some have pointed to Waller’s “declining” advanced metrics as reason for concern – but that’s a bit misleading considering peak-Waller had some of the best advanced metrics of all-time.

Waller averaged an INSANE 2.59, 2.42, & 2.28 YPRR from 2018-2020.

Those numbers were going to be hard to duplicate – no matter what.

Waller still ranked 7th in YPRR (1.74) in 2021 (behind only Kittle, Goedert, Andrews, Gronk, Pitts, & Kelce). & 10th in YPPR (1.58) last year.

(The only TE’s with 50+ targets to average a higher YPRR last year were Kelce, Andrews, Goedert, Kittle, Pitts, Muth, & Hock).

Waller has also averaged 2.00+ YPRR vs Man Coverage each of the past two seasons, even while dealing with injuries.

He led ALL TE’s in YPRR vs Man Coverage (3.18) last season.

Has Waller “declined” vs peak-Waller?

Sure, he has.

But relative to the rest of the NFL?

He’s still got “it.”

He’s still one of the best TE’s in the game.

& he’s still one of (if not arguably) the best “man-beaters” in the NFL.

& now he goes from a LV team that brought in a new coach & alpha WR to “replace” him last year – to a NYG team that just sought out his services & lacks any sort of established WR1.

None of NYG’s projected WR starters (Hodgins, Slayton, Campbell) have ever topped 100 targets in a season.

It’s very likely we see Waller back in the “alpha” role & not in the “beta” role we saw him in last year.

The ceiling is (another) 17+ PPG season.

& sure, there’s risk of re-injury, but nobody’s letting that stop them from drafting Deebo Samuel, for example (who has similar recurring soft-tissue injury risks), priced at a top-36 ADP.

ESPN has 4 TE’s projected for 100+ targets in 2023.

• Travis Kelce
• Mark Andrews
• TJ Hockenson
• Darren Waller

Kelce, Andrews, & Hock all have redraft & dynasty ADP’s in the Top-50.

Darren Waller’s redraft ADP is outside of the Top-80, & his dynasty ADP is outside of the Top-100.

All he needs to do is stay healthy & he should smash at ADP.

At the TE position we really shouldn’t care much about “floor.”

There were 15 different TE’s to average between 8-11 PPG last year.

Travis Kelce was the only one to average 14+ PPG.

We want to take shots at the few who have that upside.

If Waller hits his median range of outcomes or gets hurt – it’s not going to kill you at his current ADP.

But if he hits anywhere close to his ceiling outcome & averages 15+ PPG, 17+ PPG (again) – it’s going to be a massive, massive W at his current pricing.

2023 is the year to BUY Darren Waller.