Making the Case

• Efficient Rusher
• Proven Producer
• Red-Zone Weapon
• High-Scoring Offense
• Lack of Competition
• WK17 Matchup
• RB47 ADP

I’ve found myself drafting A LOT of Damien Harris this year.

This article will cover WHY.

To be honest, I was never a huge Damien Harris fan.

I thought he was overvalued (at a RB31 dynasty pricing) coming of a 15-TD season last year, & I preferred Rhamondre Stevenson, who had shown much more ability as a receiver.

BUT, I think the pendulum has swung too far in the other direction now that Harris has been replaced by Rhamondre.

Now that Harris’ price tag has dropped from RB31 in dynasty last year to RB47 this year (RB38 in redraft).

Now, I’m in.

Damien Harris is (still) a high-quality rusher.

He averages almost 5.0 YPC for his career (4.7 YPC), & was top-10 in yards after-contact per-attempt (2.3) just a year ago.

He was PFF’s 5th highest-graded rusher in 2021.

& has never averaged less than 4.4 YPC.

Even last year, NE leaned on him.

In his 9 healthy games:
(20%+ snaps)

Harris – 99 attempts, 443 rushing yards
Rhamondre – 95 attempts, 440 rushing yards

Harris has proven capable of handling a significant workload.

He had 135+ attempts in 3-straight seasons at Alabama.

& 202 attempts (in 15 games) with the Patriots in 2021.

He’s also shown an ability to handle goal-line duties.

As New England’s preferred red-zone weapon in 2021, he converted 8 of 15 carries inside the 5 for TD’s.

& scored 15 total TD’s.

Now, he gets to play for a team that scored 50 offensive TD’s last year.

50 (!!)

& BUF has some added incentive to protect Josh Allen around the goal-line this year after a UCL injury last year.

The only thing standing in between Damien Harris & (another) 200+ carries & double-digit TD’s is…

James Cook (?)

Is that really a significant barrier?

In 5 combined NCAA + NFL seasons with Georgia & the Bills, James Cook has:

• 41 carries
• 31 carries
• 45 carries
• 113 carries
• 89 carries

If James Cook has 115+ carries in 2023, it will be the FIRST time in his collegiate or professional career.

He hasn’t had a single game with 15+ carries.

Not once.

Cook is only 199 pounds, & he’s not built to handle goal-line work either.

He had just 4 carries inside the 10-yard line as a rookie – 0 inside the 5.

Devin Singletary handled over 90% of the RB opportunities inside the 5.

If Damien Harris gets anywhere close to 90% of the RB opportunities inside the 5 this year…

We’ve already seen him convert a high-percentage of those opportunities into TD’s before.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone if he scores 10+ rushing TD’s (again).

Say what you may about James Cook’s receiving production (he’ll likely outproduce Harris as a receiver), the odds ABSOLUTELY FAVOR Damien Harris on the ground.

In my opinion, Harris should be considered the favorite to lead BUF in rushing.

With a solid chance at 200+ carries (again) & double-digit TD’s (again).

It also doesn’t hurt that he gets to face NE in WK17.

With a revenge-game on tap (& a potential blowout?) at home in BUF, we could easily see Harris with a vintage multi-TD game against his former team during the Fantasy Finals.

& yet he’s still crazzzy cheap.

RB47/161 overall ADP in dynasty (via http://bulletproofff.com).

RB38/117 overall ADP in redraft (on @UnderdogFantasy).

You can start by simply drafting Harris at those prices.

If you want to trade for him in dynasty, I think you can justify sending a future 2 (& you might be able to get a 3 back on top).

I would also recommend selling overpriced RB’s of similar archetypes (like Isiah Pacheco) for Damien Harris+

Or get Harris “thrown into” a 2-for-1 “tier-down” trade.

For example, you trade the WR24 in ADP for the WR28 + Harris.

The whole point is – he’s cheap.

So you shouldn’t be spending too much to acquire him.

At his current cost, Damien Harris should be almost all upside, no risk.

He’s one of my favorite “zero-RB” targets for 2023.