Making the Case

✅ 5-Star Recruit
✅ Multi-Year Producer
✅ ELITE Efficiency
✅ ELITE Contested-Threat
✅ ELITE Hands
✅ ELITE Route-Runner
✅ Highly-Graded
✅ Early-Declare
✅ Projected Top-10 Pick

Carnell Tate is my 2026 WR1.

Let me tell you why…

For starters – Carnell Tate was a 5-Star Recruit (98 Prospect Grade).

He got on the field immediately as a true freshman at Ohio State – posting 18/264/1 as the team’s WR4.

Tate was the WR3 behind Emeka Egbuka & Marvin Harrison Jr. as a SO. – posting over 50 receptions & 700 yards (52/733/4).

Tate’s JR. season might not seem that impressive on the surface (51/875/9) – but he produced those totals despite seeing just 66 targets.

He caught a whopping 77.3% of his targets – despite being used almost strictly as a vertical weapon (14.6 ADOT).

Tate also caught 77.6% of his targets the season prior (as a SO.) – & he owns a staggering 75.2% career catch-rate.

That is absolutely insane considering Tate had a 12.9 career ADOT.

The only other RD1 WR’s since 2020 with 750+ career routes & a 75%+ career catch-rate?

• Devonta Smith (76.5%)
• Justin Jefferson (75%)

Carnell Tate also had a whopping 134.4 passer rating when targeted.

The only RD1 WR’s since 2020 with a higher passer rating when targeted?

• Henry Ruggs (169.4)
• Jaylen Waddle (168.7)
• Devonta Smith (165.8)
• Ja’Marr Chase (155.3)
• CeeDee Lamb (153.7)
• Brian Thomas Jr. (147.8)
• Jameson Williams (145.7)
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba (145.0)
• Justin Jefferson (142.9)
• Garrett Wilson (140.6)
• Chris Olave (140.3)

Pretty good company.

Carnell Tate also averaged 3.00+ YPRR in 2025 – & that was while playing with Jeremiah Smith.

Tate nearly posted a 90+ PFF Receiving Grade (89.0) as well.

He was absolutely UNSTOPPABLE in contested-situations – catching 12/14 contested targets (85.7%).

Tate ranks 2nd in career contested success-rate (68.8%) amongst RD1 WR prospects since 2020 – behind only Jaxon Smith-Njigba (71.4%).

Because of that ability – Tate is often compared to George Pickens (who led the NFL with a 67.9% contested success-rate as a rookie).

At 6’2 1/4” – with a 94th percentile hand size – Tate could become one of the best “ball-winners” in the NFL.

He dropped ZERO passes in 2025.

Carnell Tate was also charted as an ELITE route-runner by Reception Perception.

His 77.3% success-rate vs Man Coverage is 89th percentile – & ranks 7th amongst any WR prospect since 2021.

Tate could become one of the best pure “route-runners” in the NFL.

Barely 21 years old – & already at a 90th percentile mark vs Man.

That’s MILES ahead of where George Pickens was as a route-runner coming into the league.

Tate was also charted as 84th percentile vs Press.

Do not fret Tate’s success-rate vs Zone.

According to Matt Harmon – Tate was “unfairly penalized for running a downfield route tree.”

Harmon compares Tate to Ja’Marr Chase – who also “checked in with a lower success-rate vs Zone than desired” due to his vertical route-tree.

The player Tate is most compared to – George Pickens – has never cleared a 25th percentile mark vs Zone.

Pickens has been charted as:

– 5th percentile vs Zone as a prospect
– 15th percentile vs Zone in 2023
– 19th percentile vs Zone in 2024
– 19th percentile vs Zone in 2025

It’s not something to get hung up on – especially when Tate’s at a 90th percentile mark vs Man.

Tate’s “lack of YAC-ability” (career 4.8 YAC/reception; .140 MTF/reception) is often cited as his other “weakness.”

I’m not worried about it.

For starters – Tate was not put in many YAC-opportunities.

Over 50% of Tate’s targets came 10+ yards downfield.

& you can’t really fault Ohio State for giving those “easier” targets to Jeremiah Smith (who went for 87/1243/12 in 2025).

Not to beat the Pickens comp to death – but look at how he’s progressed…

Pickens averaged:
– 3.5 YAC/reception; .077 MTF reception in college
– 2.1 YAC/reception; .134 MTF/reception as a rookie
– 6.5 YAC/reception; .111 MTF reception in 2023
– 4.0 YAC/reception; .169 MTF/reception in 2024
– 5.1 YAC/reception; .225 MTF/reception in 2025

It’s very possible Carnell Tate develops as a YAC-threat.

& if he doesn’t? Who cares?

AJ Green is another WR who won with length & rare fluidity for his size – he averaged just 3.9 YAC/reception & .105 MTF/reception for his NFL career.

Tate’s official “comp” on http://NFL.com is Chris Olave – who has been nonexistent as a YAC-threat at the NFL level (career 3.4 YAC/reception; .041 MTF/reception). Olave finished WR5 in PPG (16.8 PPG) just last season.

Speaking of NFL.com – Tate checked in with an ELITE 6.71 NFL.com Grade.

Top-5 amongst ALL 2026 prospects.

That’s significantly better than previous WR1’s – like Tetairoa McMillan (6.40) & Drake London (6.40).

Better than Chris Olave (6.43), & Pickens (6.23).

Carnell Tate is also an early-declare.

Early-declares have historically been much more productive than late-declares.

(Chart via @SharpFootball)

The only WR’s since 2020 who check these 3 boxes?

⭐️ 5-Star Recruit
⭐️ Early-Declare
⭐️ RD1 Pick

• Ja’Marr Chase
• Devonta Smith
• Garrett Wilson
• Jaxon Smith-Njigba
• *Travis Hunter
• Emeka Egbuka

AND…

• Carnell Tate

Not only is Carnell Tate projected RD1 – he’s projected Top-10 overall.

With TEN at 4, NYG at 5, CLE at 6, WAS at 7, NO at 8, KC at 9 – all needing WR’s – I’d consider that close to a lock.

🔒🔒🔒

Tate is about to join this list of early-declare WR’s drafted Top-10:

(Since 2015)

– Amari Cooper
– Jaylen Waddle
– Ja’Marr Chase
– Drake London
– Garrett Wilson
– Marvin Harrison Jr.
– Malik Nabers
– *Travis Hunter
– Tetairoa McMillan

Every single one of these WR’s (except Travis Hunter) posted 850+ receiving yards as a rookie.

6/9 (66.7%) posted 1,000+ yards as a rookie.

The only other 5-Star Recruits to declare-early & get drafted Top-10 in the past decade are Ja’Marr Chase & Garrett Wilson.

I could not care less about Carnell Tate’s 40 time (4.53), either.

Puka Nacua – DNP
Jaxon Smith-Njigba – DNP
CeeDee Lamb – 4.50
Amon-Ra St. Brown – DNP
Drake London – DNP
Tetairoa McMillan – DNP
AJ Brown – 4.49
Devonta Smith – DNP
DeAndre Hopkins – 4.57
Tee Higgins – 4.54
Emeka Egbuka – DNP
Rashee Rice – 4.51
Mike Evans – 4.53
Davante Adams – 4.56
Carnell Tate – 4.53

No matter how you spin it – the floor for Carnell Tate is incredibly high.

He walks into the NFL already amongst the upper echelon as both a route-runner & contested-catch threat.

He has rare length for the position.

At worst, you’re getting a WR2.

At best – you’re getting a bonafide WR1.

A WR who can both tear up Man Coverage AND dominate at the catch-point.

Someone who can command 150+ targets.

Carnell Tate is the highest-floor AND highest-upside WR in this draft.

2026 WR1.