Making the Case

• Derrick Henry
• Joe Mixon
• Aaron Jones
• David Montgomery
• Alvin Kamara
• James Conner
• Dalvin Cook
• Antonio Gibson
• Damien Harris
• Samaje Perine
• Jerick McKinnon

You’ve probably heard the other side of the argument plenty of times by now.

“SELL AGING RB’S IN DYNASTY!”

“THEY’RE THE RISKIEST ASSET!”

While the second statement is technically TRUE, it’s been repeated so many times that the market has adjusted to that fact – to the point where the first statement may no longer apply.

Just look at the dynasty startup ADP’s of RB’s this year vs last year.

(Via http://bulletproofff.com)

It’s clear that a MAJOR shift has taken place.

Basically every tier of RB is being drafted at least half a round later than they were last year – some MORE THAN A FULL ROUND LATER.

RB’s have NEVER been cheaper in dynasty.

& veterans that used to cost a 1st+, can now be had for a future 2, or a pair of them.

That “risk” is now being priced in completely.

& it makes buying veteran RB’s a MUCH more palatable option.

Especially on contending teams with otherwise stable foundations (at QB/WR/TE).

These veteran RB’s have the potential to deliver difference-making production at non-premium prices.

Derrick Henry is the only player who’s priced inside the Top-30 in redraft but outside the Top-60 in dynasty.

He’s finished as the RB4, RB4, RB1, & RB4 in PPG the last 4 seasons.

& averaged almost 20 PPG (18.9) last year.

He’s getting older, but he’s also not your typical 29-year old RB.

He can still be a top-5 RB over the next 2+ seasons.

Some trades I’ve made to acquire Henry:

• Jalen Hurts for Justin Fields + Derrick Henry
• Rachaad White, Terry McLaurin, Devin Singletary for Derrick Henry, Amari Cooper, 2025 3

Joe Mixon is another highly-drafted RB (former RD2 pick) with a demonstrated history of production.

He’s finished as the RB10, RB7, & RB8 in PPG the last 3 seasons.

& has hit or paced for 270+ touches each of the past 5 seasons.

Mixon’s been traded for a 2nd round pick + a throw-in player (Rashee Rice, Evan Hull, Cedric Tillman) multiple times in just the last week via the http://bulletproofff.com trade database.

Aaron Jones has been the RB3, RB5, RB13, & RB12 in PPG the last 4 years.

He has 45+ receptions in 4-consecutive seasons.

& is still one of the best rushers in the NFL (5.3 YPC last year, 2nd amongst RB’s; 2.2 after-contact, 7th in the NFL).

Jones still has legit RB1 upside, but is priced RB25 in dynasty (8.11 startup ADP).

He’s been sold straight-up for Alexander Mattison (an only slighter younger RB with ZERO history of prolonged production), as well as for pair of (2024 + 2026) 2’s.

David Montgomery has 200+ rushing attempts every year of his career & also has a Top-10 finish on his resume (RB7, 17.7 PPG in 2020).

& Jamaal Williams scored 225.9 fantasy points last year in Monty’s current role with DET.

Montgomery is currently priced as the RB31 in dynasty (10.04 startup ADP), & has been traded for a future (2025) 2 + 3, as well as for Will Levis + 3, according to the http://bulletproofff.com trade database.

Alvin Kamara was the RB14 in PPG last year (RB6, RB2, RB8 in the 3 years prior).

& has hit or paced for 75+ targets every season.

He’s still a decent rusher (2.0 yards after-contact per-attempt, 11th in the NFL) & he’s still capable of scoring 40+ fantasy points (42.8 in WK8).

Kamara is currently priced RB33 in dynasty (10.12 startup ADP).

I will HAPPILY pay a future 2 + 4 to acquire his services.

James Conner has hit or paced for 240+ touches each of the past 5 seasons.

Finished as the RB9 & RB10 in PPG the past 2 years.

& has actually averaged more PPG when Kyler Murray has been OUT.

Conner is currently priced as the RB34 in dynasty (11.02 startup ADP) & can be bought for a 2 + 3 or 2 + throw-in player.

Dalvin Cook has 1,100+ rushing yards in 4-consecutive seasons, has never averaged less than 4.4 YPC, & hasn’t dipped below 49 targets since his rookie year.

He’s also still a home-run threat (7th fastest speed in the NFL last year, 21.68 MPH).

Cook is currently a FA, but odds are he signs somewhere willing to give him another 200+ touches.

He’s currently priced RB32 (10.08 startup ADP). & he can be bought for a single future 2 (or less).

I think you can even include mid-level veteran RB’s like Antonio Gibson, Damien Harris, Samaje Perine, & Jerick McKinnon in this conversation too.

Gibson has been the RB18, RB17, & RB28 in PPG the last 3 seasons & has 145+ carries & 40+ targets every year of his career.

The only RB’s to have more targets (57) & a higher PFF receiving grade (80.5) than Gibson last year were:

• Christian McCaffrey
• Austin Ekeler

Gibson is currently priced as the RB36 in dynasty (11.07 startup ADP) & can be bought for a future 2 + throw-in player.

Damien Harris had 200+ carries, double-digit TD’s, & finished as the RB18 in PPG just 1 season ago.

He’s currently priced RB47 in dynasty (14.04 startup ADP), & is acquirable for a pair of future 3’s.

My full “case” for Harris here.

Samaje Perine showed his handcuff-upside last year as he put up 30.2, 19.3, & 21.5 fantasy points in the 2 1/2 games Joe Mixon missed to injury.

Perine showed both a nose for the end zone (4 TD’s in 3 games) & a high receiving floor (4+ receptions in all 3 games).

Perine could also provide some standalone value in 2023 (in addition to being one of the highest-upside handcuffs in the game) with Javonte Williams returning from an ACL tear.

He’s priced RB44 in dynasty (13.07 startup ADP) & is acquirable for a pair of future 3’s.

Jerick McKinnon was the RB7 in PPG (15.9 PPG) over the second-half of 2022 & his role appears secure in KC.

He plays with the best QB on the planet & KC lacks established WR’s.

He’s priced RB54 in dynasty (16.02 startup ADP) & is acquirable for a future 3 (or pair of them).

Each of these RB’s can be a valuable contributor to competing teams & they’re no longer “overpriced” assets to acquire.

Why invest in younger, higher-priced dead-zone RB’s in the heart of WR-territory (Najee, Javonte, Dobbins, Akers) when you can replace their production with these cheap veteran RB’s multiple rounds later?