Making the Case

• 4-Star Recruit
• Collegiately-Productive
• Playmaking Ability
• Early-Declare
• ELITE Athlete
• Top-5 NFL Draft Pick
• Rushing Ability
• Supporting Cast
• Coaching Staff
• Injuries Unpredictable
• Upside Wins Championships

Anthony Richardson is one of the highest-upside picks you can make in 2024.

Let me tell you why he is “worth the gamble.”

For starters, Anthony Richardson didn’t just come out of nowhere.

He was a highly-recruited player (4-stars; 92 Prospect Grade).

& was featured on the Netflix series “QB1: Beyond The Lights” in HS despite suffering a season-ending injury as a senior.

Although he played just 12 games his first 2 seasons at Florida – he was productive when on the field.

Especially as a rusher.

Richardson put up 51/401/3 (7.9 YPC) rushing as a sophomore – almost matching his passing totals (529 yards; 8.3 Y/A).

& another 103/654/9 (6.3 YPC) rushing in his junior season as starter.

Richardson was statistically a “below-average” passer (completing just 53.8% of his passes for a 17-9 TD/INT ratio & 7.8 Y/A in his final season).

But he did show an underrated ability in the pocket – the ability to avoid sacks.

Richardson’s P2S (pressure-to-sack) ratio was below 10% in his final season (9.2%).

He took just 13 sacks despite being pressured 142 times.

His career P2S ratio (9.9%) was better than:

• Will Levis (25.3%)
• Jayden Daniels (24.5%)
• Caleb Williams (19.4%)
• Drake Maye (18.9%)
• Bryce Young (15.6%)
• JJ McCarthy (14.3%)
• CJ Stroud (12.4%)
• Bo Nix (11.6%)

Richardson showed an ELITE ability at extending passing plays – in ways that don’t necessarily show up in the passing columns.

He may lack touch/accuracy – but he doesn’t lack pocket awareness.

The only other QB drafted RD1/2 in the past 5 years with career P2S below 10% is Michael Penix Jr. (6.5%).

Richardson did enough in his 1-year as starter to declare-early for the NFL.

Early-declare QB’s have produced QB1 fantasy seasons at over a 40% clip historically.

(Chart via SharpFootball)

Richardson is also THE MOST ATHLETIC QB OF ALL-TIME.

He ran the 4th fastest 40-time amongst QB’s (4.43) since the year 2000 – at 6’4”/244.

He BROKE THE QB RECORD for vertical jump (40.5”) – & he tied Matt Jones for the best broad jump by a QB (10’9”) since 2003.

Richardson is the definition of a 95th+ percentile athlete.

(Chart via MockDraftable)

“A-Rich” was also a Top-5 NFL Draft pick.

Every single QB drafted Top-5 from the years 2010-2020 started at least 40 NFL games.

I’d consider that the “floor” for Richardson.

& his fantasy value should remain incredibly high as long as he remains starter.

Richardson somehow averaged 18.4 fantasy PPG across 4 games last year (the same PPG as Patrick Mahomes) – despite the fact he played just 32% & 33% of snaps in 2 of those 4 games.

Richardson LED THE NFL in fantasy points per-dropback (.76).

Which would’ve been the highest-mark since Lamar Jackson’s first MVP season (in which he averaged 28.1 fantasy PPG).

(Via @RyanJ_Heath)

The main question is – how good can Richardson be as a passer?

He certainly has the supporting cast.

• Michael Pittman Jr. (80th percentile)
• Adonai Mitchell (84th percentile)
• Josh Downs (93rd percentile)

Were ALL charted as 80th+ percentile vs Man coverage last year (via @RecepPerception).

Not to mention Jelani Woods – a 6’7”/259, 4.61-running, Top-75 NFL Draft pick.

Or former rushing Champion Jonathan Taylor.

On top of the offensive weapons – A-Rich is equipped with a very capable coaching staff.

Coach Shane Steichen has already gotten career-years out of Justin Herbert in LA (22.9 PPG as a rookie) & Jalen Hurts in PHI (25.6 PPG in 2022).

Anthony Richardson is next.

The only real question is – can Anthony Richardson stay healthy?

& should you even be trying to predict QB injuries at all?

According to @FBInjuryDoc – there is no discernible difference in injury-rates between Mobile & NON-mobile QB’s.

Just last year the community labeled Lamar Jackson as “injury-prone” while fading him for “safer” pocket-passers – like Joe Burrow.

How did that work out?

I don’t know whether Anthony Richardson will stay healthy in 2024 – but I am fairly certain he is going to BREAK FANTASY if he does.

So I’m gonna fuck around & find out.

I believe his SF dynasty ADP (1.10 – ahead of every RB, all but 3 WR’s) & redraft ADP (56th overall) are both justified.

& although there are a couple QB values I like later (namely Kyler Murray & Dak Prescott) – I’m not letting that stop me from drafting A-Rich.

You play to win the game.

& Anthony Richardson has “league-winner” firmly within his range of outcomes.

Count me IN.