Making the Case

I know it’s going to take time to adjust & some of us might not be there quite yet, but Marlon Mack is NOTHING more than a Handcuff to JT in 2020:

• Rushing Volume
• Rushing TD’s
• Receptions
• NyHeim Hines
• Team Depth

In 2018, IND gave RB’s 346 carries.

(Mack 195/Hines 85/Wilkins 60/Turbin 4/Michael 2)

In 2019, IND gave RB’s 399 carries.

(Mack 247/Hines 52/Wilkins 51/Williams 49)

They add Campbell, Pittman, & Trey Burton to the fold in 2020.

If we split the difference between ’18 & ‘19, that’ll be ~ 375 carries to split up.

If IND returns to their 2020 dependence ~ 400 carries.

If Hines gets ~ 50 carries & JT gets ~ 15 carries per-game (240 carries total) that’ll leave Mack ~ 85-110 carries.

Even projecting JT at just 240 carries (an absurdly low # if you ask me), there just isn’t a whole lot of room for Mack to clear more than 110 carries in 2020.

Mack has averaged 4.7 & 4.4 YPC the last two seasons.

85-110 carries (at 4.4-4.7 YPC) gives him a range of ~ 375-515 rushing yards in 2020.

Mack has also been heavily TD-dependent the last two years, scoring 10 & 8 total touchdowns.

In 2018, Mack played in 12 games & had 9 games with 10+ fantasy points.

He reached 10+ fantasy points without scoring a TD only 2/9 times.

In 2019, Mack played in 14 games & had 7 games with 10+ fantasy points.

He reached 10+ fantasy points without scoring a TD in just 1 (!!) of those games.

That’s just 3/26 games where he scored 10+ fantasy points without a TD.

If we take his rushing TD’s per-carry average over the last two years:

17 rushing TD’s on 442 carries = 1 TD every 26 carries.

Apply it to 85-110 rushes in 2020 & it’d net him ~ 3-4 TD’s.

If we take the high-end of his projections:

~ 125 carries/600 yards/4 TD’s & 20 receptions/150 yards/1 TD.

It’d net him ~ 125 fantasy points (RB40 last year).

If we take the low-end of his projections:

~ 85 carries/375 yards/3 TD’s & 10 receptions/75 yards/1 TD.

It’d net him ~ 80 fantasy points (RB58 last year).

Idk what you call runningbacks who receive 85-125 carries & contribute little to nothing in the passing game but “Handcuff” sounds likes a pretty good description to me.

Sorry Marlon! I just don’t see being able to classify him as anything else in redraft heading into 2020.