Making the Case

• (Lack of ) College Production
• Late-Declare
• Route-Running
• Gadget-Usage
• Special Teams Usage
• Post-YR1 Trade
• Situationally-Inflated

I can name at least half a dozen reasons to fade Kadarius Toney having nothing to do with injuries.

1. Toney was NEVER productive in college.

Toney didn’t clear 25 receptions or 260 receiving yards until his senior season in college.

& NEVER even came close to an above-threshold season in market shares.

2. Toney was a late-declare.

Players who declare-early after 3 collegiate seasons have much better hit-rates than those (like Toney) who declare after 4 (or 5) collegiate seasons.

3. Toney’s a (very) poor route-runner.

Reception Perception has charted Toney as a (well) below-average route-runner both as a prospect & through 2 seasons as a pro.

In 2 NFL seasons, @MattHarmon_BYB has charted Toney with:

5th, 63rd, & 11th percentile success-rates vs Man, Zone & Press in 2021.

16th, 17th, & 27th percentile success-rates vs Man, Zone, & Press in 2022.

4. Gadget-Usage

Because Toney is a limited-application player who can’t effectively run the full route-tree, he’s pigeonholed into gadget-usage.

According to @PFF, 13/53 (24.5%) of Toney’s targets were behind the line of scrimmage as a rookie.

& 10/19 (52.6%) of his targets, including 7/16 (43.7%) in KC were behind the line of scrimmage last year.

This leads to an inflated (& misleading) YPRR, as Toney has received nearly 1/3 of the targets in his career on plays where a target is essentially “guaranteed.”

That doesn’t translate in a full-time role, which Toney may never see.

5. Special Teams Usage

Toney also provides value on special teams, which is likely part of the reason KC justified trading for him – not with grand intentions of turning him into the “next Tyreek Hill.”

6. Toney was traded after 1 season.

The fact NYG traded Toney 1 year after spending a 1st round pick on him is not a good sign.

How many other WR’s have found success in similar scenarios?

7. Situationally-Inflated

Toney is currently being drafted as the WR36 in redraft via @UnderdogFantasy.

& the WR40 in dynasty via http://bulletproofff.com.

(Ahead of a perennial producing early-declare with a superb RP profile in Rashod Bateman).

He’s priced within sniffing distance of proven target-earners (like Diontae Johnson) & other collegiately-productive early-declares (like Treylon Burks).

All because he plays with Patrick Mahomes on an open depth chart & has a (misleadingly) solid small-sample YPRR as a former RD1 pick.

I would argue Kadarius Toney is much more in the mold of Rondale Moore than Tyreek Hill.

I think he’s this year’s Gabe Davis (an unproductive player in a great offense with one small-sample to point to, overdrafted as a result).

I would take this recent injury news as a blessing in disguise.

Don’t “buy the dip.”

Just fade Kadarius Toney in 2023.