Making the Case

• Collegiately-Productive
• Athletic
• RD1 NFL Draft Pick
• LEGIT YR1 Production
• ELITE Reception Perception Profile
• ELITE YAC Ability
• Contested-Catch Ability
• Underrated Situation

I’ve been drafting a lot of Zay Flowers in both redraft & dynasty this year.

I feel people are sleeping on his talent & exaggerating situational concerns.

This article will cover all of the reasons why.

For starters, Zay Flowers was highly-productive in college.

Flowers was involved immediately as a true freshman at Boston College (22/341/3 receiving – 3rd on the team).

He also had another 27/195/1 rushing (7.2 YPC) & led ALL BC WR’s in total offense (536 yards) – as a true freshman.

Flowers also led BC in receiving as a sophomore, junior, & senior, posting:

• 56/892/9
• 44/746/5
• 78/1077/12

The team also continued to involve him as a rusher as he posted rushing lines of:

• 11/41/1
• 7/69
• 12/40

Flowers may be short (5’9 1/4”) but he’s big enough (182 pounds) & he has excellent speed & quickness.

At the NFL Combine – Zay posted a blazing 4.42 40, as well as a solid 35.5” vertical.

Flowers is also a RD1 NFL Draft pick.

Just based on that criteria – Flowers has roughly a 35% chance of producing *at least* one Top-12 finish.

& roughly a 20% chance of producing *at least* one Top-5 finish.

(WR hit-rates by draft capital via @pahowdy & @campus2canton)

Flowers immediately stepped into BAL’s WR1 spot as a rookie – posting 77/858/5 on 108 targets (along with another 8/56/1 rushing).

& his numbers could’ve been even better if he played WK18 (BAL rested their starters).

Flowers became just the 15th WR in NFL HISTORY to produce 75+ receptions as a rookie.

The only other RD1 WR’s to do so:

• Terry Glenn
• Michael Clayton
• Odell Beckham Jr.
• Justin Jefferson
• Jaylen Waddle
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Garrett Wilson

That’s it.

Flowers’ regular season peripherals (1.64 YPRR, 73.9 PFF Receiving Grade) were very solid for a rookie.

& he was this close to a 2-TD (29-fantasy point) game against KC in the Conference Championship.

Flowers’ Reception Perception marks are also borderline-ELITE.

Zay was charted with a 68th percentile success-rate vs Man & a 90th (!!) percentile success-rate vs Zone.

As a rookie.

This makes Zay Flowers a PERFECT MATCH for Lamar Jackson – who teams refuse to play Man against (Zay faced Zone on over 60% of his routes as a rookie).

If Flowers takes another step forward in YR2 – we could be looking at 75th+ percentile (80th+ percentile?) & 90th+ percentile marks vs Man & Zone.

There’s a legit chance Flowers’ develops into one of the PREMIER route-runners in the NFL.

Flowers is also EXCELLENT with the ball in his hands.

Flowers averaged 5.1 YAC/reception & forced an insane 19 missed tackles on 77 receptions.

He was tied for 6th (with AJB & Garrett Wilson) in forced missed tackles – behind only Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Nico Collins, Stefon Diggs, & CeeDee Lamb.

As a rookie.

Flowers was also surprisingly effective in contested-situations – hauling in 5/10 (50%) of his contested-targets (20th out of 80 WR’s).

From just about every angle I look at it – Zay Flowers looks like a GREAT TALENT.

It will not surprise me one bit if he continues to elevate into the Olave/Devonta price-range in both dynasty & redraft.

& I believe “situation” is the only reason he isn’t valued there already.

I also believe people are exaggerating how “bad” Flowers’ situation really is.

Let’s not forget – he’s playing with a 2-time NFL MVP at QB.

BAL may never lead the league in passing attempts – but that doesn’t mean Lamar Jackson can’t support productive receiving weapons.

Lamar has already LED THE NFL IN PASSING TD’s (with 36, during his first MVP-season in 2019).

Not to mention 2021 – when Mark Andrews averaged 17.7 PPG (equivalent to WR6 in PPG) as BAL’s top receiving option.

In the same season Marquise Brown posted 90+ receptions, 1,000+ yards, & averaged 14.1 PPG himself.

We’ve already seen BAL support BOTH a 17.0+ PPG AND a 14.0+ PPG receiving option – in the same season.

It could absolutely happen again – perhaps with Zay Flowers as the higher-scoring option.

Even if Andrews remains the #1 target – there’s upside for BOTH to hit 15.0-16.0 PPG.

15.0-16.0 PPG would put Flowers right at the edge of WR1 territory, as the WR12 in PPG has averaged roughly that over the last 5 years.

• 2023 WR12 = 16.2 PPG
• 2022 WR12 = 15.2 PPG
• 2021 WR12 = 16.1 PPG
• 2020 WR12 = 16.6 PPG
• 2019 WR12 = 15.5 PPG

& all of this is ASSUMING Mark Andrews stays healthy…

Andrews (as much as I love him) has played a full season without missing time to injury just ONCE in the past 4 years…

What happens if Andrews gets hurt again?

Who else in BAL is capable of demanding targets?

OBJ is gone. Rashod Bateman has suffered as many injuries as Rashaad Penny & is coming off just 32/367/1 on 56 targets in 16 games last year.

Who‘s left? Nelson Agholor???

If Mark Andrews gets injured (again) – Zay Flowers has the talent, QB-play, & lack of target competition to hit 90+, potentially 100+ receptions.

He might even get there without an Andrews injury – just off of natural YR1-YR2 progression.

I would consider Flowers priced close to his floor at a WR25 redraft/WR20 dynasty ADP.

I would SELL higher-priced WR2’s like Jaylen Waddle, Chris Olave, Devonta Smith, & Rome Odunze for Zay Flowers+

(Odunze + a late-projected 2026 2 for Flowers + 2027 1 would be clutch)

I also love Flowers’ price-point in startups.

Instead of reaching on an overpriced WR2 (like Chris Olave or Devonta Smith) in RD3 of startups – I’d rather draft an elite TE like Trey McBride & grab Flowers at WR a round (or two) later.

Here’s an example of a startup build where I drafted Flowers (I also traded back & acquired multiple future 1’s in this draft).

I’m very happy to BUY at cost, knowing at WORST – Zay’s a WR2 with strong spike-week potential, in a top offense.

At BEST – Zay’s the next “breakout” WR.