Making the Case

• 4-Year College Starter
• Rookie Success
• Significant Endorsements
• Elite Weapons
• Ideal System
• Elite Playcaller
• Fantasy Points
• Deflated ADP

Let’s make one thing clear.

Brock Purdy is NOT a transcendent talent.

He doesn’t have elite size (6’1”/212).

He’s not a phenomenal athlete (4.84 40, 27” vertical).

& he was the literal LAST pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.

The truth is, a lot of us might not even know who Brock Purdy was if it weren’t for injuries to Trey Lance & Jimmy G.

BUT… Purdy (who was a 4-year starter at Iowa St.) WAS given an opportunity as a rookie.

& he ran away with it.

Purdy was undefeated (5-0) as a starter during the regular season (6-0 if you count the game he played 90% of the snaps).

SF averaged a ridiculous 32.5 PPG.

& scored 33+ points in 5/6 games with Purdy under center.

Among QB’s with 100+ passing attempts last year, Purdy ranked:

• 9th in completion % (67.1%)
• 4th in Y/A (8.1)
• 5th in TD/INT ratio (3.25)
• 5th in QBR (65.6)

As a rookie.

The only QB’s with higher rookie PFF passing grades since 2015:

• Baker Mayfield (79.9)
• Justin Herbert (78.4)
• Mac Jones (77.4)
• Patrick Mahomes (76.3)
• Joe Burrow (74.3)

All 1st round picks.

Purdy also won his first 2 playoff games – including a 332-yard/3TD game in a 41-23 win against SEA.

He didn’t throw a single playoff INT.

Unfortunately, Purdy was injured against PHI after completing his first 4 passes in the Conference Championship.

Some people think that’ll be the end of the story.

& I’ve often seen Purdy conflated with Nick Mullens.

I’m not buying that comparison.

If we were gonna compare Purdy to a previous 49ers QB, his production more closely resembles Jimmy G’s (who started 56 games for the team).

& there’s an argument Purdy could be better.

Check out this breakdown of Purdy’s play by Brett Kollmann.

Despite the significant injury (UCL tear) & SF’s investment in Trey Lance – Purdy has STILL received significant endorsements from both the HC (Kyle Shanahan) & GM (John Lynch).

That shouldn’t be understated.

From March 28th, via Sports Illustrated.

Well, fast forward a few months…

& Purdy has been cleared without restrictions.

He’s taken every first team rep so far in camp, with Trey Lance & Sam Darnold splitting 2nd team reps.

(via USA Today)

Barring any setbacks – Purdy WILL be SF’s 2023 Day 1 starter.

& that means Purdy is gonna get to run it back with SF’s “Monstar” crew (CMC, Deebo, Kittle, Aiyuk, Shanny calling plays), again.

The same crew that helped Purdy average 18.1 fantasy PPG (QB11 in PPG) last year.

It’ll be Purdy’s job to lose.

& if he holds onto it?

There’s reason to believe that SF will want to see through his entire rookie contract (which runs through 2025).

All signs point to Purdy starting in 2023 & potentially beyond.

BUT – because Trey Lance is still on the roster, Purdy’s price remains relatively cheap.

Purdy currently has a QB26 dynasty ADP (via http://bulletproofff.com)

Behind “bad” starters like Kenny Pickett (QB31 in PPG in 11 starts, negative TD-INT).

& complete unknowns like Jordan Love (60.2% completion, 3-3 TD-INT in 10 career games).

Amongst unknowns like Sam Howell (QB27 ADP) & Desmond Ridder (QB29 ADP).

& terrible fantasy producers like Mac Jones (QB28 ADP).

& Purdy’s just as cheap in redraft (QB23 ADP, via Underdog Fantasy).

Is there “risk” that Purdy could get benched for Trey Lance (or someone else) if he doesn’t play well?

Absolutely there is.

But there’s risk with every QB in this range.

Purdy’s the ONLY one who was actually highly productive in real life & fantasy last year.

I expect his price to continue to rise as people come to grips with the fact he’s SF’s starter.

If he’s able to hold onto the gig & produce anything like last year (QB11 in PPG) – he’s a near-certain bet to outproduce his current QB26 price tag.