Making the Case

• Top-6 TE
• Elite Comps (?)
• 4.70 40
• Low YPR
• WR Competition (?)
• D’Andre Swift
• QB Regression (?)
• Pitts & Fant >>>
• Top-3 TE’s >>>

Let’s get one thing out of the way.

TJ Hockenson is my Dynasty TE6.

I’m NOT here to:

-Trash him
-Say to rank him below TE6
-Recommend panic-selling shares

He’s already shown a solid floor & I don’t expect it to disappear.

But what we all want to know is, can he be elite?

This article will cover:

-His elite comps & potential ceiling
-His speed & YPR comps
-His target competition
-& what I would do with pre-existing shares & in start-up drafts

Bottom line, it’s a pitch to:

-Fade Hock at his startup ADP in favor of Kelce/Waller/Kittle/Pitts/Fant
-Trade Hock for Noah Fant+ (or even straight-up)
-Trade Hock+ for Kelce, Waller, Kittle
-Trade Hock+ for Kyle Pitts
-Or hold

So let’s get to it.

First things first, “the Duck Test.”

A Duck Test is simple – if it looks like a duck, runs like a duck, & quacks like a duck, well… Might be a duck.

So what do “elite” fantasy TE’s (ducks) look like?

& is TJ Hockenson a duck?

The “Duck List”
-S. Sharpe
-Gonzo
-Gates
-Witten
-D. Clark
-V. Davis
-G. Olsen
-J. Graham
-Gronk
-Ertz
-Kelce
-Waller
-Kittle

Every single TE on this list has a 75+ reception season & has hit 1,000+ yards (except Davis, who peaked at 965 yards).

I separated them by era (post-2010/earlier):

New Era
Kittle/Waller/Kelce/Ertz/Gronk/Graham

Old Era
Olsen/Davis/Clark/Witten/Gates/Gonzo/Sharpe

What do these TE’s have in common?

-Athleticism (sub-4.65 40)
-YPR (12+)
-Early Success (875+ yards by YR 2)

How’s Hock compare?

Kittle
4.52
43/515/2 (12.0 YPR) Year 1
88/1377/5 (15.6 YPR) Year 2

Hock
4.70
32/367/2 (11.5 YPR) (12 games)
67/723/6 (10.8 YPR)

Kittle’s 4.52 speed translates directly to +YPR.

He produced almost 2X as much yardage as Hock in Year 2, in an identically productive passing offense…

Anything lower than 11.25 YPR & a TE needs more than 80 REC’s to hit 900 yards & even come close to sniffing the “Duck List.”

Unfortunately for Hock, it looks like he’s going to hover around 11.25 YPR.

Hock is definitely ≠ Kittle

Waller
4.46
90/1145/3 (12.7 YPR)
107/1196/9 (11.2 YPR)

Hock
4.70
32/367/2 (11.5 YPR) (12 games)
67/723/6 (10.8 YPR)

I count Waller’s 1st year starting, post-suspension, but we can throw “early success” out.

The 40’s aren’t even close to comparable.

Hock ≠ Waller

Kelce
*4.61-4.63
67/862/5 (12.9 YPR)
72/875/5 (12.2 YPR)

Hock
4.70
32/367/2 (11.5 YPR) (12 games)
67/723/6 (10.8 YPR)

Kelce ran a 4.61/4.63 (discrepancy).

He also missed Year 1 to injury so 67/862/5 is technically Year 2.

Still, his 1st year playing > Hock’s 2nd.

Kelce/Waller/Kittle: 4.63 or faster, 875+ yards Year 2, & 12.7+ YPR.
Hock: 4.70, 723 yards YR2, & 11.5/10.8 YPR.

Hock ≠ Kelce, Kittle, or Waller

Gronk
4.67
42/546/10 (13.0 YPR)
90/1327/17 (14.7 YPR)

Hock
4.70
32/367/2 (11.5 YPR) (12 games)
67/723/6 (10.8 YPR)

Do I even need to explain this one?

The 40’s are close, but Gronk was faster while being an inch taller & 14 pounds heavier…

I’ll also let the production & YPR speak for itself…

Hock is definitely ≠ Gronk

Graham
4.53
31/356/5 (11.5 YPR)
99/1310/11 (13.2 YPR)

Hock
4.70
32/367/2 (11.5 YPR) (12 games)
67/723/6 (10.8 YPR)

You can probably guess where this is going…

Hock ≠ Graham

That’s six elite “new era” TE’s & Hock doesn’t look, run, or quack like any of ‘em.

Now, let’s look at the one that he does…

Ertz
4.76
36/469/4 (13.0 YPR)
58/702/3 (12.1 YPR)

Hock 4.70 32/367/2 (11.5 YPR) (12 games)
67/723/6 (10.8 YPR)

Hock looks & runs like Ertz.

4.70 or slower.

700+ Year 2 (but not 875+ like the others).

Not quite = YPR, but Ertz’s best years were around 10.0 YPR anyways, which raises the question, what were Ertz’s best years? The circumstances? Hock’s likelihood of encountering them?

Ertz had 3 years with 14+ fantasy PPG (2017/2018/2019).

He led PHI in receptions all 3 years.

The next leading receiver behind him in those years:

Nelson Agholor – 120 targets
Nelson Agholor – 97 targets
Dallas Goedert – 87 targets

So basically, the only “duck” on the list that Hockenson looks, runs, & quacks like, is only on the list because of some egregiously-low levels of target competition.

& I mean egregious…

You’d think Hock might comp better to the “Old Era” TE’s, but he doesn’t match up to a single one of them (well, sorta…)

His 40 comps a little better, but that raises the question, how much do 40-times comp across eras?

Honestly, I have no clue. At the very least, it’s a question.

Even so, every “Old Era” TE (except one) was either:

Faster:
-Olsen 4.53
-Davis 4.39
-Clark 4.65
-Witten 4.65
-Gates 4.60 (PlayerProfiler time)
-Sharpe 4.67 (in 1990)

12+ YPR:
-Davis 13.3
-Clark 16.9
-Gates 16.2
-Sharpe 14.6

875+ yards in Year 2:

-Witten 87/980/6
-Gates 81/964/13

The only one who comps is actually the GOAT, Gonzo, who ran a 4.83 (in 1997), had a sub-12.0 YPR, & failed to top 875 yards by Year 2.

Which seems like a smash “W” for Hock…

But Gonzo’s 40-time was in 1997, more than 20 years ago… so how does that translate?

& the raw stats?

Look a lil’ different w/ offensive context…

Gonzo’s teams (KC)

3,129 yards/20 TD’s
3,472 yards/15 TD’s

Hock’s teams (DET)
4,187 yards/28 TD’s
4,397 yards/27 TD’s

Gonzo boomed much harder Year 2, especially considering the era.

Hock ≠ Gonzo

That leaves just Ertz.

He’s the only duck (out of 13) that Hock looks, runs, & quacks like…

& you can argue he’s only on the list because of perfectly ideal circumstances.

If Hock is even gonna be Ertz (which would, admittedly, be a win), he’s probably gonna need to luck into multiple seasons of being the No. 1 receiver, with literally zero target competition.

Anything’s possible, but if he does somehow survive the 2021 offseason & DET doesn’t upgrade last year’s WR unit (Jones/Amendola/Cephus/Sanu), the team is almost guaranteed to next year… whether via F.A. or w/ one of their two 1st rounders (they also have two 1sts in 2023).

Kenny G is gone, but he only played 5 games in 2020, so that shouldn’t change much relatively.

D’Andre Swift, who is already one of the NFL’s best receiving RB’s, isn’t going anywhere any time soon.

& Stafford was replaced with Goff – who’s old team paid two 1sts to swap him…

Literally everything worked in TJ Hockenson’s favor in 2020 & there’s legitimate reason to believe those circumstances change, for the worse.

IF he looked, ran, & quacked like a duck, I’d be willing to bet on him regardless of circumstance…

Which lead us to Noah Fant…

Fant
4.50
40/562/3 (14.1 YPR)
62/673/3 (10.9 YPR) (15 games, 1 w/ Hinton, 1 w/ 5 snaps, so ~ 13 games)

Hock
4.70
32/367/2 (11.5 YPR) Year 1 (12 games)
67/723/6 (10.8 YPR) Year 2

Not only does Noah Fant look & run like a duck (4.50 & 14.1 YPR), but you can make a case he quacks like one too.

Both he & Hock played without their team’s WR1 in 2020.

Hock played all 16 games & had a productive QB…

Fant suffered a high-ankle sprain & missed WK6. Fought through it (exited with the same injury WK9 vs ATL), had another game where he left with an illness after 5 snaps, played 3 games with Jeff Driskel/Brandon Allen, another with Hinton, and the remaining 11 with Drew Lock…

You can easily argue that if Fant hadn’t suffered a high-ankle sprain, a 5-snap game, a Hinton-game, & had a QB as productive as Stafford, his Year 2 numbers would have been 70+ & 800+ & we’d be sitting here talking about the “Year 2 explosion” he just had…

He has the 40.

The YPR.

& I can easily argue circumstance was the only thing preventing the Year 2 explosion.

Noah Fant could be 11/13 TE’s on this list (we’ll knock him for not booming Year 1, like Kelce & Gronk did).

Hock can only be 1/13.

For all I know, Hock is a goose…

To wrap this thing up, take Hunter Henry, & Dallas Goedert:

Henry
4.72
36/478/8 (13.3 YPR)
45/579/4 (12.9 YPR) (14 games)

Goedert
DNP 40
33/344/3 (11.4 YPR)
58/607/5 (10.5 YPR)

Hock
4.70
32/367/2 (11.5 YPR) (12 games)
67/723/6 (10.8 YPR)

Hock looks a hell of a lot more like these two than the ducks.

Goedert’s basically a mirror image in all 3 categories (& he’s 2 rounds cheaper)…

Hunter Henry was Hock, pre-Hock – highly touted & drafted, productive early, & gave us expectations he’d be the next “duck” …

But as we’re finding out, Henry probably isn’t a duck – just a really nice goose.

Which isn’t to say there’s no place in the world for a really nice goose…

Just that if you bought at duck prices early & got one, well, just go ask those people how they feel about it…

TJ Hockenson can surely be better.

I’m not saying to dismiss him.

I prefer him to Henry, to Goedert, & to Gesicki (who runs a 4.52).

I even prefer him to Andrews.

Still, Hock could easily settle in with this group behind him & not with the elite group ahead of him.

& if he does, those ranking him as high as 56th overall/mid-5th RD (FantasyPros) will not be happy.

I’d take Fant > Hock straight-up & his ADP is a full round cheaper (88.5 vs 75.9).

Neither should be Plan A though, if we’re being honest.

Securing 1 of the 3 TE’s who already is a duck in RD1 or RD2 should be Plan A, Paying up for Pitts should be Plan-B & Fant should be your fall-back.

Drafting TJ Hockenson (or Mark Andrews, or Dallas Goedert, or Mike Gesicki) should be your last resort.

Somewhere around 50% of your leaguemates believe TJ Hockenson is going to be “Elite.”

They believe he’s going to be a duck.

Use that to your advantage where you have him, because if that many people think he’s going to be a duck, that means you can turn him into one of the 3 TE’s who already are, at a relatively cheap price.

& if you can’t pry a top-3 TE away, you can still probably get Noah Fant+