Making the Case

• #1 Overall Pick
• Yardage-Creator
• TD-Scorer
• Year Under Brees
• LASIK
• 2021 Performance
• Top-FA QB
• Top-5 Upside
• QB28 Price Tag

Jameis Winston has become a mostly forgotten man in the QB landscape.

We haven’t seen or heard from him since he tore his ACL in Week 8 (& performed the now infamous crutch dance)…

With ongoing Super Bowl talk & speculation regarding Aaron Rodgers & Russell Wilson, there hasn’t been much focus on Winston’s FA status.

He’s currently valued all the way down at QB28/140 overall on KTC.

I believe that is a DRASTIC mispricing & this article will cover why.

To start – Winston is a former #1 overall pick (who was also the #1 ranked QB in his recruiting class, as well as the 2013 Heisman winner).

He carries an extremely high pedigree & has demonstrated an ability to play at a high level – on numerous occasions.

Winston’s also shown the ability to create MASSIVE amounts of yardage at the NFL level.

He produced 4,042 passing yards as a rookie.

& increased his passing YPG in 4-consecutive seasons afterwards – culminating with a 5,109-yard season in 2019.

Winston’s also thrown a lot of TD’s.

22 as a rookie.

28 & 33 in the other two seasons where he played 16 games.

23 & 27 (16-game paces) in the seasons where he played 13 & 11 games.

& was pacing for 32 through 7 games with NO this year.

The problem for Winston has never been creating yardage or scoring TD’s – it’s been his ability to protect the football.

In his 5 seasons in TB – he threw 15, 18, 11 (in 13 games), 14 (in 11 games), & 30 (!!) INT’s.

It’s definitively what cost him his job in TB.

But, what if Winston is starting to put it all together?

He spent 2020 learning under Drew Brees & Sean Payton in NO.

& also took a drastic step to correct his vision by undergoing LASIK surgery.

Apparently – his vision was so poor he couldn’t even read the scoreboard while playing in TB.

& he was never comfortable wearing contacts. (Excerpt from SI)

Here’s what Winston had to say about the results of the surgery:

Whether it was his new set of eyes, the year under Brees & Payton, or both – Winston came out FIRING in 2021.

He posted a 14/3 TD/INT ratio through 7 games, leading NO to a 5-2 record.

It was by far his career-best INT %.

His 64.4 QBR trailed only Rodgers, Brady, & Herbert.

This with Marquez Callaway, Deonte Harris, Juwan Johnson, & Adam Trautman as his top receivers.

Unfortunately, we only got to see 7 games of Winston in 2021 – but those 7 games gave us a glimpse of what could be.

Now, it’s certainly possible the year under Brees & Payton didn’t help Winston much.

It’s possible LASIK only barely, marginally improved his vision.

& that his 2021 performance was just the result of Sean Payton’s system.

But – it’s also possible the year under Brees & Payton DID help.

It’s possible that LASIK DID significantly improve his vision.

It’s possible BOTH of those things are true.

& that Jameis HAS taken a legitimate step forward.

At his current QB28/140 overall asking price – it’s MORE THAN worth finding out.

In his last 3 seasons as a starter, Winston has finished as the QB14, QB5, & QB14 in PPG.

He’s already finished Top-5 once & has never finished below QB20 in PPG.

That means that at a QB28 price you’re essentially only betting on ONE thing:

• He just needs to start in 2022.

& that seems like a pretty solid bet considering his pedigree, his 2021 performance, & the (sad) state of the 2022 FA options.

Other than Winston – the top FA QB’s are Teddy Bridgewater, Mitchell Trubisky & Marcus Mariota.

If Winston doesn’t re-sign in NO, there are projected openings in:

• DEN
• PIT
• CAR
• WAS
• TB
• (& potentially also SEA if Russ is traded to one of those teams)

Aaron Rodgers & Jimmy G will likely fill 2 of those vacancies via trade – but that still leaves (at least) 4 spots for Winston.

The (high) odds of him starting again are worth the (low) risk.

& what happens if Winston ends up somewhere with decent skill players, like PIT, CAR, or WAS?

He could not only outperform his QB28 price tag – he could potentially do it by a significant margin.

If you even get just 2 seasons of high-end QB2 production – that’s a massive W.

You should be looking to acquire him as your 3rd (or even 4th) QB in early startups, where he is regularly falling to the double-digit rounds.

He’s also a great trade-target in existing leagues – early in the off-season before FA heats up.

He’s valued similar to a late-2022 2 on KTC.

Some position players valued ahead of him are Rashaad Penny, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods, DJ Chark, Tyler Boyd, & Chase Edmonds.

I’m taking Winston over ALL of those players & I’m not hesitating.

He is the single-cheapest buy at the QB position with legitimate top-5 upside.

That makes him a MUST-TARGET in Superflex formats.