Making the Case

• 4-Star Recruit
• College-Producer
• Early-Breakout
• Early-Declare
• Freak-Athlete
• RD1 Pick
• Underrated Rookie Season
• Injury-Deflated Outlook
• Situational Discount

Treylon Burks is currently valued WR25 in dynasty & I believe he’s the perfect BUY-target at that pricing.

This article will cover why.

Simply put – Treylon Burks has always been good.

He was a 4-star recruit & the #1 ranked player in his state (AR) coming out of high-school.

He produced immediately as a true freshman at Arkansas – leading the team in receiving yards all 3 seasons he played.

Then he declared-early.

Early-declare = higher hit-rate.

At the NFL Combine, Burks weighed in at a grisly 6’2”/225.

He ran a 4.55 40, had a 33” vertical, & a 7.28 3-cone time.

Not spectacular by any means – but considering size, Playerprofiler still has him listed at an 86th percentile speed score.

We also have MPH data highlighting his elite on-field speed.

Burks was also a RD1 pick (18th overall).

There have been 33 early-declare RD1 WR’s since 2010:

2010-2015:

• Demaryius Thomas
• Dez Bryant
• Jonathan Baldwin
• Julio Jones
• AJ Green
• DeAndre Hopkins
• Cordarelle Patterson
• Brandin Cooks
• Sammy Watkins
• Kelvin Benjamin
• Mike Evans
• Odell Beckham
• Nelson Agholor
• Amari Cooper

2016-2022:

• Laquon Treadwell
• Breshad Perriman
• Will Fuller
• DJ Moore
• Calvin Ridley
• N’Keal Harry
• Marquise Brown
• Jalen Reagor
• Henry Ruggs
• Jerry Jeudy
• CeeDee Lamb
• Justin Jefferson
• Rashod Bateman
• Jaylen Waddle
• Ja’Marr Chase
• Jameson Williams
• Drake London
• Garrett Wilson
• Treylon Burks

11/14 (78.5%) drafted 2010-2015 had at least one 1,000-yard season (with only Jonathan Baldwin, Cordarelle Patterson, & Nelson Agholor failing to do so).

8/19 (42.1%) drafted 2016-2022 already have at least one 1,000-yard season – & that’s not including Jeudy, Bateman, London, Jamo, (& Burks) who could do so & potentially raise that to 13/19 (68.4%).

In total, 19/33 early-declare RD1 WR’s drafted since 2010 (57.5%) have at least one 1,000-yard season – not including the 5 listed above who could do so this year or next & raise that total to 24/33 WR’s (72.7%).

Being a RD1 early-declare = very good.

Out of the 9/33 RD1 early-declares without a 1,000-yard season – 8/9 “misses” were poor on a per-route basis as rookie.

As rookies:

• Baldwin (.96 YPRR)
• Patterson (1.33 YPPR)
• Agholor (.70 YPRR)
• Treadwell (.33 YPRR)
• Perriman (1.53 YPRR)
• Fuller (1.18 YPPR)
• Harry (.85 YPRR)
• Reagor (1.30 YPRR)
• Ruggs (1.32 YPRR)

Breshad Perriman was the only RD1 early-declare “miss” who cleared 1.33 YPRR as a rookie.

Treylon Burks, on the other hand, was very good on a per-route basis as a rookie – averaging 1.75 YPRR.

Treylon Burks is EXTREMELY likely to end up in the bucket of 1,000-yard RD1 early-declare WR “hits” – & not with the “misses.”

The other early-declare RD1 WR “hits” are:

• Demaryius
• Dez
• Julio
• AJG
• Gordon
• D-Hop
• Cooks
• Watkins
• Benjamin
• Evans
• OBJ
• Amari
• DJM
• Ridley
• Hollywood
• CeeDee
• Jefferson
• Waddle
• Chase
• Wilson

& possibly Jeudy, London, Bateman, Jamo, (& Burks.)

A dynamite group to join, if Burks can do so.

Treylon Burks = Very Good Prospect.

So why is Burks valued so low?

For one – he dealt with multiple injuries to both himself & his QB.

& he rarely saw a full snap-count as a result – playing more than 75% of snaps in just 1/11 games.

Burks missed a chunk of time during minicamp with asthma issues.

& he was eased-in the first few weeks of the season as a result (playing just 37%, 45%, & 69% of the snaps WK1-3).

But he was doing well.

Then he got hurt WK4 (turf toe).

He saw 6 targets in his first game back (WK10 v DEN).

Then went 7/111 on 8 targets (50% of the snaps) & 4/70 on 6 targets (67% of the snaps) the next two weeks.

Then he got hurt again, making this tough TD-catch in the 1st quarter vs PHI in WK13.

By the time Burks returned in WK16, he had to deal with Malik Willis & Josh Dobbs at QB.

All-in-all, pretty much anything that could’ve gone wrong for Burks in YR1, did.

& yet he still impressed.

He averaged 2.18 YPRR in games with Ryan Tannehill under center – which would’ve placed Top-15 amongst WR’s.

The TEN offense may lack volume – but that didn’t stop AJB.

Or DK in SEA – who Burks performed similarly to as a rookie.

The only target-competition currently in TEN is:

• Kyle Philips, a RD5, YR2 slot WR with 8 career receptions.
• Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, who hasn’t topped 500 yards in any year.
• Chris Moore, a soon-to-be 30-year old, who hasn’t topped 550.
• Chig Okonkwo, a YR2, RD4 TE.

There’s a chance TEN drafts JSN or Quentin Johnston 11th overall to pair with Burks, but they’re primarily mocked an OL or QB.

Even if they do take JSN or Johnston, “bad situation” is already priced-in for Burks, so he’s fairly insulated on that front.

You could *still* put him ahead of any non-JSN rookie WR in your dynasty rankings.

& if they don’t draft a WR RD1?

It’s gonna be wheels da f*ck up for Treylon Burks in YR2.

He’s either going to come out of the draft a small “loser” or a huge “winner.”

I think you can argue him as high as 1.07 if slotting him into this rookie class.

Here’s a trade for him I made.

& some trades from @Adeiko_ff’s trade database where I’d take the Burks side.

(http://Bulletproofff.com)

Burks is a solid bet for 1,000+ yards in YR2 & he makes for a perfect pivot-down target.

BUY him now – before it’s too late.