Making the Case

• FOR Dalton Kincaid
• FOR Michael Mayer
• FOR Sam LaPorta
• FOR & AGAINST Luke Musgrave
• FOR Tucker Kraft
• AGAINST Darnell Washington

This TE Class is one of the deepest TE classes in years.

This article will cover the Top-6 in ADP & the pros/cons in each of their profiles.

As well as some quick notes on the deeper options.

I’ll also include my “comps” for each player.

First up, Dalton Kincaid.

Kincaid was the only TE in this class drafted RD1.

On that alone – he’s pretty much guaranteed to put up *at least* one Top-12 finish at some point in his career.

It also gives him a 50/50 shot at putting up at least one Top-6 finish.

Kincaid was VERY productive in college.

He caught 11 TD’s on 24 receptions as a freshman at San Diego.

Led all FCS TE’s in YPC (18.9) as a sophomore.

Led Utah in receiving TD’s his second year there, & led them in all receiving categories his final season.

Kincaid put up a whopping 34.1% Dominator Rating in his final season.

Dominator Rating = % of team receiving yards + % of team receiving TD’s/2.

(For example, 20% of the yards + 30% of the TD’s/2 = 25% Dominator Rating).

11 of 12 (non-rookie) TE’s currently valued Top-12 in dynasty had a Dominator Rating of 18% or higher, in at least one collegiate season.

• Kyle Pitts – 24.1%
• Mark Andrews – 18%
• Travis Kelce – 27.6%
• TJ Hockenson – 24%
• George Kittle – 23.2%
• Dallas Goedert – 30.7%
• Pat Freiermuth – 24.8%
• Darren Waller – 32.1%
• David Njoku – 24.6%
• Evan Engram – 29.5%
• Greg Dulcich – 27.3%

11 out of 12.

Of those 11, only Mark Andrews was below a 20% Dominator Rating (at 18%) – but he played with BOTH Marquise Brown AND CeeDee Lamb at Oklahoma.

Dalton Schultz (currently valued TE12) is the only TE valued Top-12 with a college Dominator Rating below 18% (he was at 11.4%).

A lot of people say college production doesn’t matter for TE’s – but essentially every TE in the Top-12 had an 18%+ Dominator Rating, in at least one collegiate season.

Kincaid checks this box emphatically.

Kincaid fits the mold of a “big-slot WR.”

He played 64.6% of his snaps last year in the slot or out wide.

& he’s not going to be asked to block.

He didn’t participate in any athletic drills – but it’s estimated he runs between 4.65-4.70.

Kincaid was solid in contested situations, catching 20/34 (58.8%) of his career contested targets.

He’s also a weapon after the catch, forcing 16 missed tackles on 70 receptions in his final season.

(via @PFF).

Add it all up & we have a highly productive TE, who can line up in the slot or out wide, with the requisite athleticism, contested-catch, YAC abilities, drafted RD1.

Tethered to Josh Allen, in an offense lacking a WR2.

2023 TE1.

My comps for Kincaid:

• David Njoku
• Travis Kelce

Fluid athletes, mid-4.6 speed. RD1/2 picks (first pick of RD3 for Kelce), 22%+ Dominators, 14+ YPR. Weapons in both contested situations & after the catch.

Next up, Michael Mayer & Sam LaPorta.

You can rank them in either order.

2A & 2B.

Based on just their RD2 draft capital – LaPorta & Mayer have more than a 40% chance of producing *at least* one Top-12 season.

& a 15-20% chance of producing *at least* one Top-6 season.

(They were also dangerously close to getting drafted RD1, where the hit-rates jump to over 90% for Top-12 finishes & a coinflip’s chance at a Top-6 finish).

Mayer tied for or led his team in receptions all 3 seasons he played – & produced a whopping 35.8% Dominator.

Box checked. Emphatically.

LaPorta led his team in receptions each of his final 3 seasons – & produced a solid 25.5% Dominator.

In the worst situation of any 2023 rookie TE (Iowa ranked 129th out of 131 FBS teams in yards per-game last season).

Box checked.

Mayer is also an early-declare.

These are the hit-rates of early-declare TE’s vs non-early declare TE’s from 2010-2020, provided by Sharp Football.

As you can see, the early-declares produce TE2, TE1, & Top-6 TE finishes all at higher rates.

LaPorta is not an early-declare, but he’s a much better & more explosive athlete (4.59 40, 35” vertical).

While Mayer put up “disappointing” athletic scores (4.70 40, 32.5” vertical).

Mayer’s numbers are still within the acceptable spectrum, though. Just the lower end of it.

Both TE’s were also used heavily in the slot.

Mayer played 60.1% his snaps last year in the slot or out wide.

LaPorta played 51.6% of his snaps last year in the slot or out wide.

Mayer is no slouch after the catch (12 broken tackles on 67 receptions).

But LaPorta is perhaps the best YAC threat in this class – breaking an absurd 20 tackles on 58 receptions this past year.

(via @PFF).

That total ranked #1 amongst ALL FBS TE’s.

& is the 5th highest total in a season by any TE since PFF started tracking the stat.

(via @Thorku)

LaPorta also continually shows up right alongside Mayer & Kincaid in advanced stats like YPRR & yardage market-share.

My comps for LaPorta:

• Gerald Everett
• George Kittle

Sub-6’4”, between 4.62-4.52 speed, 23%+ Dominator Ratings. Explosive after the catch. (Everett was 2nd in forced missed tackles amongst all TE’s this year, behind only Travis Kelce).

My comps for Mayer:

• Pat Freiermuth
• TJ Hockenson

Early-declares, RD1/2 picks, roughly 4.70 speed, 24%+ Dominator Ratings. Limited athletic ceiling, but strong target-earning ability.

In the next tier – I have Luke Musgrave & Tucker Kraft.

Musgrave was a RD2 pick, giving him roughly a 40% chance at a Top-12 finish.

Kraft was a RD3 pick, giving him roughly a 30% chance at a Top-12 finish.

Neither are early-declares, but Kraft declared as a redshirt Junior, forgoing his senior season of eligibility.

& that counts for something.

Kraft’s profile is clean across the board.

RD3 pick (78th overall), 4.69 40, 34” vertical, 21.2% Dominator.

Zero red flags.

He played 43.5% of his snaps last year in the slot or out wide.

& forced 25 missed tackles on 92 receptions the last 2 years.

(via @PFF).

Musgrave is a conundrum.

He failed to eclipse a 7.5% Dominator in any of his first 3 seasons.

BUT – he started HOT in his final year (11/169/1 in 2 games), pacing for a 30%+ Dominator Rating before getting injured.

48.3% of his snaps were in the slot/out wide.

(via @PFF).

The complete lack of production through 3 years is a major red flag.

But Musgrave was drafted high (RD2, 42nd overall), has a high athletic ceiling (6’6”, 4.61 40, 36” vertical), & flashed as a senior.

He has a very high ceiling & very low floor.

My comps for Musgrave:

• Jelani Woods
• Logan Thomas

6’6”+, high-4.6 speed, equipped with elite athletic tools. But either lack college production/didn’t produce until their final collegiate season.

My comps for Kraft:

• Faster/lighter Vance McDonald
• Dallas Goedert-lite

RD2/3 picks, just under 4.70 speed, 20%+ Dominators, YAC threats.

After Kraft – my confidence in this class drops.

Lastly?

Darnell Washington.

Washington was drafted RD3, giving him roughly a 30% chance at at least one Top-12 finish.

The problem?

Well, there are many.

For starters, Washington is 264 pounds.

The only TE over 260 pounds currently valued as a Top-40 dynasty TE is Cole Kmet (262 pounds, valued TE13).

Not inspiring.

Washington profiles more as a 6th o-lineman than anything resembling a WR.

He had the highest % of positively-graded run-blocking plays in this class (14.1%, via PFF).

Allowed 0 pressures on 32 pass-blocking snaps.

& only played 33.9% of his snaps in the slot/out wide.

I often hear “being a good blocker means he’ll be on the field more.”

But what it really means is he’ll be running less routes – which is definitely not a good thing.

In the past decade, the only TE’s to finish Top-5 while pass-blocking more than 15% of the time are George Kittle & Julius Thomas (in a Peyton Manning-led, record-setting passing offense).

Washington was above a 14% pass-block rate in 2/3 seasons at Georgia, was above 10% all 3 years, & had a career 12.5% pass-block rate.

Dangerously close to that 15% limit.

Compared to pass-block rates of:

• 7.6% for Kincaid (4.2% in final year)
• 3.8% for Mayer (3.4% in final year)
• 7.4% for LaPorta (3.4% in final year)
• 8.2% for Kraft (7.7% in final year)
• 12.5% for Musgrave (10% in final year)

Out of these 6 TE’s – only Musgrave & Washington had career pass-block rates above 8.2%.

Both were at 12.5% for their careers.

Dangerously close to the limit (15%) for Top-5 NFL finishes.

More blocking = Less routes.

Less routes = Less receptions.

Less receptions = Less fantasy points.

It’s that simple.

& that’s exactly how Darnell Washington’s collegiate career played out.

He never finished higher than 5th on his team in receptions – in any of his 3 seasons.

& he wasn’t just outproduced by Brock Bowers.

Washington had less receptions than Ladd McConkey, Marcus Rosemy-Jacksaint, & 5th year senior RB Kenny McIntosh.

Since Washington came to Georgia, the team has thrown for 89 TD’s.

Yet, Washington has just 3/89 (3.3%).

3 TD’s!!!

In 3 seasons!!!

Washington wasn’t able to clear a 10% Dominator Rating at any point (he topped out at 8.3%).

The only TE currently valued as a Top-40 dynasty TE with a college Dominator below 10% is Dawson Knox.

Not inspiring.

Washington (& Musgrave) are the only TE’s of this group to never clear a 80.0 PFF receiving grade in any season.

Best-season PFF receiving grades:
(Including playoffs)

• Kincaid – 91.8
• Mayer – 91.6
• Kraft – 89.1
• LaPorta – 85.3
• Musgrave – 79.2
• Washington – 78.3

Career YPRR:

• Kraft – 2.33
• Kincaid – 2.32
• Mayer – 1.95
• LaPorta – 1.89
• Washington – 1.60
• Musgrave – 1.38

Here are their market-shares over their careers, via campus2canton.

(Kraft’s career & Kincaid’s first 2 years at FCS level not available).

In summary, amongst the Top-6 TE’s in this class, Darnell Washington has the:

• Worst-Dominator Rating (8.3%)
• Worst PFF Receiving Grade (78.3)
• Highest Pass-Block Rate (12.5%)
• 2nd Worst Career YPRR (1.60)
• Lowest % of Snaps in Slot/Wide (33%)

Red flags galore.

I expect Darnell Washington to have a long & successful NFL career.

Like Marcedes Lewis – who’s STILL playing in the NFL, at the age of 38, after 17 NFL seasons.

I even think Washington might have *a* season with 10+ TD’s (like Lewis did once).

Maybe twice, if he’s lucky.

But Lewis also failed to surpass 600 receiving yards in all but 1/17 NFL seasons.

& it won’t surprise me if Washington regularly fails to surpass that mark either.

He is a solid athlete (4.64 40), especially for his size.

& was efficient on his receptions (16.2 YPR).

But don’t expect it to ever translate to a high-volume role.

Good NFL Player ≠ Good Fantasy Asset

My comps for Washington:

• Heavy OJ Howard
• Faster Marcedes Lewis

Blocking-oriented. Lacking college production. Better NFL players than fantasy assets.

Luke Schoonmaker & Brenton Strange were both RD2 NFL Draft picks, but neither has a standout quality.

Both late-declares.

& neither was productive (14% & 15% Dominators) or efficient (11.9 & 11.3 YPR) in college.

I prefer Schoonmaker, who’s a bit faster (4.63 vs 4.70 40).

My comp for Schoonmaker:

• Daniel Bellinger

My comp for Strange:

• Tommy Tremble

There are a few TE’s with solid athleticism worth throwing darts at late:

• Zack Kuntz
• Elijah Higgins
• Will Mallory
• Josh Whyle

But they’re unlikely to hit as RD5-7 picks.

Kuntz is the most intriguing athlete of the bunch, but he put up just 3 receptions in 3 years at Penn State behind Muth & Strange – & he was not efficient (9.5 YPR) in a high-volume role at a small-school (Old Dominion).

Keep your expectations low.

I’m not really interested in any of the options after that (although I will be keeping tabs on Billingsley with those athletic numbers).

Here’s how the whole class charts.

All in all – this is a fantastic TE class.

Just be sure you target the right ones.