Making the Case

• ELITE College Producer
• ELITE Athlete
• RD2 NFL Draft Pick
• LEGIT YR2 Breakout
• QB Stability
• Age 23
• Valued Below Top Tier

I should’ve written a full case for Trey McBride sooner – if we’re being honest.

& I thought I missed my window to get him “on record” as one of my guys.

But the latest injury to Mark Andrews has created a bit of a debate about McBride’s dynasty value…

& it feels necessary I “Make The Case” for McBride NOW while he’s still a point of discussion.

I’m going to lay out all of the reasons why you should be ALL-IN.

For starters, Trey McBride was an ELITE college producer.

He was “above-threshold” in 3-consecutive seasons.

Was named “first team” All-Mountain West as a Sophomore at Colorado St.

& led his team by MASSIVE, MASSIVE margins in his final 2 seasons.

(Chart via Campus2Canton)

If COVID didn’t shorten the 2020 season – McBride might’ve declared-early too.

(Early-declares have higher hit-rates; chart via Sharp Football)

McBride was ON FIRE with 22/330/4 in 4 games to start the 2020 season.

He could’ve continued to raise his stock if the season wasn’t cancelled.

& possibly declare early after his Junior year.

Instead, McBride went back for his senior year & posted an absurd 90 receptions for 1,121 yards – more than DOUBLE CSU’s second-leading receiver.

According to Chris Miles, McBride posted the HIGHEST RYPTPA of ANY TE prospect in the last 20 years.

McBride was basically off the Campus2Canton charts…

Trey posted an INSANE 46.3% Dominator Rating at Colorado State.

& is the ONLY TE in the NFL with a College Dominator Rating above 40% to get drafted in the first 2 rounds of the NFL draft.

No other active TE in the NFL was that productive + highly-drafted.

& college production DOES matter for TE’s.

EVERY SINGLE TE currently valued Top-10 in dynasty had an 18%+ College Dominator (except Dalton Schultz).

Hock – 24%
Kelce – 27.6%
LaPorta – 25.5%
Kincaid – 34.1%
Andrews – 18%
McBride – 46.3%
Kittle – 23.2%
Pitts – 24.1%
Goedert – 30.7%

*Schultz – 11.4%

Players who are productive in college are more likely to be productive as pros.

It really is that simple.

& McBride was EXTREMELY productive in college.

McBride’s also a borderline ELITE athlete.

He ran an unofficial 4.54 40 at his Pro Day.

& Playerprofiler charted him with an 85th percentile speed score.

Draft capital ALSO MATTERS for TE’s.

Just check out this thread by @DFBeanCounter himself.

Here’s Drew’s summary for Top-12 hit-rates for TE’s, by Draft Round.

As you can see, draft capital is EXTREMELY predictive, even at TE.

Which is great news for Trey McBride, who was a RD2 NFL Draft pick.

NOW…

Let’s talk about what McBride is doing as an NFL Pro…

Amongst TE’s with 10+ targets this season, McBride ranks:

• 2nd in PFF Receiving Grade (84.6)
• 2nd in YPRR (2.39)

In just his second NFL season.

The ONLY TE ahead of him?

Travis Kelce.

We’re not talking about mediocre production spread out either – we are talking about some truly DOMINANT performances.

McBride posted the highest target-share of ANY TE THIS SEASON in WK8.

& even while McBride “only” posted 3/22 on 5 targets in WK9, that’s actually fairly impressive considering RD5 rookie QB Clayton Tune completed just 11/20 passing attempts for just 58 yards against a buzzsaw CLE defense.

McBride has posted a 25%+ target share in each of the last 3 games.

Including this past week in Kyler’s first game back – McBride caught 8/131 on 9 targets (21.1 fantasy points).

These aren’t just above-average numbers – these are ELITE TOP-3 TE numbers.

& McBride’s looked damn good on film.

DAMN GOOD.

Oh & he’s only 23 years old (!!)

Attached to Kyler Murray (who signed a 4-year contract extension) for the foreseeable future.

McBride DESERVES to be mentioned alongside LaPorta & Kincaid.

& with his current trajectory – he soon will be.

(Chart via my TE Checklist)

McBride could leap Mark Andrews in dynasty value straight-up not just by the end of the season…

But as soon as next week, if he has another good game – & why wouldn’t he?

If (when?) that happens all of a sudden it’ll cost Andrews+ to get McBride onto your squad…

If you can still get McBride+ (any sort of legit plus, like a future 2) for Andrews on a contending team – I’d take it.

& let’s not scoff at the notion of doing a straight-up swap either, if push comes to shove.

There will always be value-merchants who hate the idea of ever trading “below market-value.”

But that’s just not how dynasty trading works.

& that’s not how dynasty trading should work.

With ANY trade between a contender & rebuilder – there should be a fair transfer of power.

Power now for power later.

If I’m the contending team – I’m not just willing, but EXPECTING to “overpay.”

& if I’m the rebuilding team – I’m INSISTING I get the “value-side.”

It should NEVER be expected as a contender that “I should get both power now AND not lose any value.”

That’s a BONUS – it should NOT be expected.

If I’m a competing team & expecting to BOTH get the side that wins now AND not give up any long-term value – how is that fair to the rebuilder?

What do they stand to gain?

The rebuilder should always be able to feel like they get the “value-side” & the contender should always feel like they gave up some future value.

Give up some value long term, get some value now – & vice-versa.

That’s how you build reciprocating symbiotic trade relationships in dynasty.

If I think I’m going to just trade Andrews for McBride + picks and win now AND not give up any “value” – how is that fair to the rebuilder?

How is that reciprocal?

It isn’t.

If I’m a rebuilding team and you don’t want to give me the clear value-side of the deal – I’m telling you to pound sand.

Otherwise why am I giving you contending help?

To not even gain any clear value?

I don’t think so – not on my watch.

Give & take, not take & take.

It’s how leagues stay balanced.

That’s why “value” should ALWAYS be favoring the rebuilding side of any package.

You CAN refuse as a contender to make any deal below market value ever – to never “give” any value.

You can mock the idea of trading Andrews for McBride straight up.

You can just HOLD Andrews & try to buy a cheap vet like Logan Thomas.

A much lower-upside option than Trey McBride – but there’s no shame in trying to “just get by.”

I’m in spots where I’ll be doing just that.

But let’s give Trey McBride credit where credit is due.

If push comes to shove & you trade a 28-year old Andrews (who will be coming off a season-ending injury next year) for McBride straight-up on a contending team – that’s not “sub-optimal.”

It’s called trying to win – the whole point of the game.

Refusing to sell any player “below-market” ever doesn’t make your process more optimal.

It just means you hold dead players on contending teams.

& refuse to ever help rebuilders long-term by giving them any value gains.

That’s not how I trade & I don’t think that’s how trading should be done.

It’s disrespectful to the rebuilder if you’re asking them to LOSE TWICE by giving you value now AND not even get clear long-term “value.”

So at the end of the day – would I LIKE to get Trey McBride+ if selling Andrews?

Absolutely I would, and if someone’s giving me a plus I’m taking it & running.

But I don’t expect that.

& when push comes to shove, I’m willing to do what fair contending trade partners do – lose “a little” on value.

Don’t lose sight of the ultimate goal.

We PLAY TO WIN the game.

& Trey McBride is HERE TO STAY.