Making the Case

• Collegiate Success
• Early-Declare
• Efficient
• Athletic
• Standout Receiver
• COVID-Affected Red-Flags (?)
• Rookie Performance
• Ambiguous Backfield
• RB50 Price Tag

Kenneth Gainwell is one of my favorite low-cost buys at the RB position & this article will cover all of the reasons why.

For starters, Kenneth Gainwell’s college production was extremely impressive.

As a true freshman at Memphis, Gainwell backed up 3 future NFL RB’s (Darrell Henderson, Patrick Taylor, & Tony Pollard).

He only played in 4 games before redshirting, but he took his 4 attempts for 91 yards & a TD.

& caught another 6 passes for 52 yards.

In his second season, Gainwell took over as starter & absolutely exploded, putting up an absurd 231/1459/13 rushing & another 51/610/3 receiving.

While producing an 81st percentile YPC (6.3) & 92nd percentile target-share (13.8%).

(Percentiles via @rotounderworld)

Gainwell was named AAC Freshman of the Year, second-team All-American, & the National Freshman of the Year.

Perhaps most impressively – he was featured ahead of 2 other future NFL RB’s (Patrick Taylor, as well as Antonio Gibson).

Unfortunately, we never got to see Gainwell’s 3rd year, as he opted out of the 2020 season days before the opener, after 4 members of his family died of COVID.

Even with just 1 season of play on his college resume, Gainwell decided to forgo his last 2 years of eligibility & declare early for the NFL Draft.

Early-declare = higher hit-rate.

(Chart courtesy of @SharpFootball)

At his Pro Day, Gainwell ran an impressive 4.42 40 (4.47 adjusted) & put up a solid 21 bench reps.

He measured in a dash undersized at 201 pounds, but at just a shade under 5’9” that puts him at a respectable 30.6 BMI (63rd percentile).

Unfortunately, Gainwell fell all the way to RD5 in the 2021 NFL Draft. Despite his stellar 2019 production, dual-threat skillset, & solid athleticism.

His lack of participation in the 2020 season & decision to opt out may have contributed to that slide, however.

Considering the unusual circumstances with COVID opt-outs, we should take 2021 draft capital with a grain of salt.

Especially considering the rest of Gainwell’s profile.

& his rookie performance…

As a rookie, Gainwell wasn’t used much as a rusher (68 carries), but he was efficient (4.3 YPC) & he ranked 17th among RB’s in forced missed tackles per-carry (with 13 forced missed tackles on 68 carries).

He also compiled 33 receptions & 50 targets, & showcased his versatility by lining up in the slot or out wide on 16% of his snaps.

@PFF ranked him 8th amongst RB’s in both receiving grade & pass-blocking grade.

Gainwell may never be a high-volume rusher, but he profiles very similarly to another former Eagles RB who had plenty of fantasy success himself – Darren Sproles.

All-in-all, Gainwell put up 544 yards, 33 receptions, 50 targets, 6 TD’s, & 123.4 fantasy points as a rookie, despite playing just 29% of PHI’s offensive snaps.

He had 6 games with 12+ PPR points.

As Gainwell heads into YR2 it should be assumed he owns the receiving role.

With even incremental progress, he’s looking at 40+ receptions & 60+ targets.

Just based on natural progression we should also expect Gainwell to get 100+ carries in YR2.

& it’s possible PHI continues to sour on Miles Sanders in the last year of his contract & we start to see Gainwell function as the leader of their committee.

& yet somehow Kenny G remains stupid cheap – priced outside the Top-50 RB’s in both redraft & dynasty.

Draft him anywhere & everywhere at that price.

(Dynasty ADP provided by @Adeiko)

Or trade for him.

You can trade RB’s:

• Rashaad Penny
• Isaiah Spiller
• Tyler Allgeier
• Michael Carter
• Tyrion Davis-Price
• Zamir White
• Brian Robinson
• Khalil Herbert

Straight up.

You may even be able to get a + on top, if you’re lucky.

You can trade other similar bets (like Chase Edmonds) for Gainwell+

You can trade vacated target posterboys like Allen Lazard for him.

I would trade every single value-adjacent player listed on @KeepTradeCut for him.

Gainwell’s floor is being underrated & his ceiling underestimated.

At worst, you’re getting one of the best receiving RB’s in the league – with potential for more.

BUY Kenny G NOW before his cost inevitably rises.