Making the Case

• 5-Star Recruit
• True Freshman SEC Breakout
• Alpha-Size
• Contested-Catch Ability
• Press-Beater
• Sure Hands
• Physicality/Competitive Spirit
• Early-Declare
• RD2 Draft Capital
• Situational Discount

George Pickens is one of my most-rostered rookies in the 2022 class & this article will cover the numerous reasons why.

Simply put – he checks boxes.

Pickens was a 5-star recruit coming out of high-school.

Received offers from schools including Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Miami, Michigan, & Florida.

& eventually committed to Georgia.

He’s built like an alpha, standing 6’3”/195.

& immediately assumed that role, leading Georgia in:

• Receptions
• Receiving Yards
• Receiving TD’s

As an 18-year old, true freshman.

In the SEC.

He had the 3rd most catchable targets (49) in college football without a drop.

& was named the Sugar Bowl most outstanding player after putting up 12/175/1 on 15 targets.

AS A TRUE FRESHMAN…

Why does a true freshman breakout matter?

18-year old breakout = higher hit rate.

Box checked.

Pickens’ freshman season was so good, PFF graded him better than a handful of current NFL standouts.

Even in a “down” sophomore season, where Pickens missed 2 games to an upper body injury – he still led GA in receptions, receiving yards, & receiving TD’s per-game.

Unfortunately, he tore his ACL before the start of his Junior year.

Because of that, Reception Perception was forced to chart his sophomore season, instead.

& Pickens was charted with an 86th percentile success-rate against press coverage.

Even though his sophomore tape was being compared to other WR’s junior or senior tape.

He was also charted with a 75% contested-catch rate as a sophomore.

When Pickens tore his ACL, he could’ve focused solely on preparing for the NFL Draft – but he fought to come back & play for Georgia.

& he did, with 4 games remaining.

He even came up with this clutch 52-yard reception in the National Championship game. In his final game as a Bulldog.

His determination & grit were on full display.

(Just as it often has been as a blocker on running plays…)

Here he is talking about it.

Not only is he supremely talented – he’s also gritty, & he has a high-motor.

& to top it all off – he’s an early-declare.

Early-declare = higher hit-rate. (Chart by Sharp Football)

Another box checked.

Pickens checked the final box when he was taken RD2 (52nd overall) in the NFL Draft by the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Overall, he profiles very similarly to another 2022 Rookie WR – Drake London.

Drake London’s Dynasty ADP:

• WR13/47 overall

George Pickens’ Dynasty ADP:

• WR45/112 overall

For two WR’s who profile similarly talent-wise – London’s dynasty ADP is more than twice as high.

Perceived situation has only widened that gap.

While London steps into an immediate WR1 role (behind Kyle Pitts) in ATL…

Pickens lands in a PIT offense already feeding WR1 Diontae Johnson in addition to Najee Harris, Chase Claypool, & Pat Freiermuth.

BUT… Diontae Johnson is a FA at the end of the year & is yet to receive an extension.

& even if he does re-sign…

Chase Claypool severely regressed last year (27th, 5th, & 27th percentile vs Man, Zone, & Press in YR2 Reception Perception profile).

& is a FA himself at the end of 2023.

George Pickens has a clear path to overtaking Claypool as WR2 *immediately* – even before Claypool hits FA at the end of 2023.

& if Diontae does leave at the end of the year as a FA, Pickens could be PIT’s WR1, NEXT YEAR.

There are multiple pathways for Pickens’ “bad” situation to flip to “good” – & potentially quickly.

Plus, he’s only 21 years old anyways.

Add it all up & it makes George Pickens a massive BUY at his current situation-deflated WR45/112 overall asking price.

Some WR’s going in that range I’d trade for Pickens:

• DeAndre Hopkins
• Michael Thomas
• Gabriel Davis
• Christian Kirk
• Jahan Dotson
• Christian Watson

& you can likely get Pickens+

Watson ironically is the anti-Pickens.

Small-school, late-breakout, 5th year redshirt senior declare.

Just red flags across the board.

& yet his ADP is a round & a half higher.

You can trade Watson for Pickens+

You can also flip other unproven rookies like Jameson Williams/Chris Olave for Pickens & an even bigger plus.

There are multiple ways to acquire him, with a + on top – & that makes George Pickens a perfect pivot-down target.