Making the Case

• College Producer
• Early-Declare
• Supremely Athletic
• Top-35 Pick
• Rookie Producer
• Reception Perception
• Situational Discount

I decided to squeak in one last “Making The Case” thread before the 2022 season starts.

& give everyone one final reminder that Elijah Moore SZN is coming.

Do NOT leave your drafts this weekend without him. Here’s why:

For starters, Elijah Moore has always been productive.

He was involved as a true freshman at Ole Miss (36/398/2) – despite playing with established & NFL-bound talents (AJB, DK, Dawson Knox).

Moore also dominated as a sophomore (67/850/6).

& went absolutely berserk as a junior – putting up an absurd 86/1193/8 (in just 8 games).

Finishing with a ridiculous 99th percentile target share (via @rotounderworld)

After his dominant junior season – Moore declared early for the NFL Draft.

Early-Declare = Higher hit-rate. (Chart courtesy of @SharpFootball)

There wasn’t a Combine in 2021 (due to COVID) – but Moore showed up to his Pro Day & ripped off a 4.35 40, 36” vertical, 4.07 shuttle, & a surprising 17 bench reps.

All elite or borderline-elite scores.

When the NFL Draft rolled around – Moore was drafted Top-35.

& he produced immediately as a rookie, seeing 6+ targets in 9/11 games.

Moore put up 43/538/5 (+ 5/54/1 rushing) in 11 games – despite clearing 60% of the snaps in only 5/11 games.

He was extremely efficient – finishing with as many (or more) YPRR (1.75) as Jaylen Waddle, ARSB, & Rashod Bateman.

Yet Moore’s 2022 ADP is a full round cheaper than all of them (or more, depending on the platform).

Moore matches (or exceeds) Jaylen Waddle in most advanced metrics…

& @RecepPerception graded him as one of the top-performers from the 2021 class.

In terms of raw production – Moore finished his rookie year WR33 in PPG.

& now he heads into YR2 – the most common year for breakout WR’s.

(Data via @FF_Contrarian & @RotoViz)

(Basically – 2nd year WR’s have more breakouts in the past 10 years than any other year of WR’s have in the past 20).

WR33 in PPG as a rookie.

& now heading into Year 2…

Moore is being drafted as *checks notes*

• WR33 on Underdog
• WR35 on Yahoo
• WR40 on ESPN

This is egregious.

Moore finished WR33 in PPG as a rookie & is heading into YR2.

His QB is heading into YR2.

& his main competition for targets is a rookie (who I admittedly also like – but a rookie nonetheless).

Moore checks every box for LEGITIMATE WR1 upside – & you can draft him as your 3rd, 4th, sometimes even 5th (!!) WR.

In the 6th, 7th, sometimes even 8th (!!) round.

This is borderline criminal.

I’m willing to plant a flag.

& say there is no better value at the position.

ELIJAH MOORE IS YOUR MUST-DRAFT WR FOR 2022.