Making the Case

(as the 2021 redraft 1.01).

• ELITE Production
• Durability
• Stability
• TE Scarcity
• RB Diversity
• Top-3 TE’s >>>

Travis Kelce has produced 80+ receptions & 1,000+ yards while finishing as the TE1 in FIVE consecutive seasons.

He’s gone for 97+ & 1,200+ in each of the last 3 seasons, & had career-highs in 2020 at the age of 31.

105 receptions 1,416 yards & 11 TD’s Without even playing WK17…

He had 10+ fantasy points in 14/15 games.

20+ fantasy points in 10/15.

He ranked as the 7th highest-scoring non-QB, with 312.8 PPR points.

Kamara, Davante, Dalvin, Derrick Henry, Tyreek, & Diggs were the only non-QB’s to outscore him.

In both total points & PPG, Kelce was the “RB4.”

On top of “RB4” production, Kelce is also as durable as any RB in the NFL.

He hasn’t missed a game to injury in 7-straight seasons.

On just production + durability alone, he should be in the top-3 conversation.

So what pushes him to 1.01?

TE SCARCITY.

The common misconception pushing Kelce (& other elite TE’s) down the board is people believing RB’s are scarcer than TE’s.

Because we start 2 RB’s yet only 1 TE, it’s a natural assumption to make.

RB’s must be scarcer? Right? We start 2 of them?

Actually, it’s not so simple.

Even though we start 2 RB’s but “only” 1 TE, the numbers suggest it’s mathematically more difficult to find “just” 1 TE than it is to find 2 RB’s.

116 players cleared a 150-point threshold in 2020:

• 29 QB’s
• 30 RB’s
• 50 WR’s
• 7 TE’s (!!)

Even with a low bar, 7 TE’s to 30 RB’s.

That’s enough RB’s for 2-per, but definitely not enough TE’s.

& look at the TE landscape last year.

Kelce – TE1 – 20.9 PPG
Waller – TE2 – 17.4 PPG
Kittle – TE3 – 15.6 PPG

& then almost a 10 PPG-drop from Kelce…

Andrews – TE4 – 12.2 PPG
Tonyan/Thomas – TE5 – 11.0 PPG
Hockenson – TE7 – 10.9 PPG

& 15 other TE’s who averaged 10.6-8.5 PPG.

It’s the top-3 & then just one giant clusterf*ck.

Tonyan & Thomas finished tied for TE5 & yet they were just a 2 PPG advantage over the TE18 (Jimmy Graham).

That’s less than the difference between Kelce & Waller…

Pitts, Fant, Hock, Andrews, or even someone else might elevate this year… but how much so?

Pitts is a rookie & the rest have either athletic limitations or major QB concerns – or some combination of both.

That makes getting a top-3 TE imperative, once again.

& passing on Kelce at 1.01 could mean losing Waller & Kittle as well.

Sure, in most leagues, one of Waller/Kittle WILL be there at 2.12, but if you know your league & aren’t sure they will be, you CAN go Kelce 1.01 & eliminate any risk of missing on the top-3.

The production is worth it.

Kelce is a 10 PPG advantage in the TE slot over 9 of your 11 leaguemates.

& I can GUARANTEE you that there will be RB1 archetypes at 2.12/3.01 this year.

We’re not living in last year’s world, when the top tier dropped after RD2 & left nothing but Todd Gurley & David Johnson to choose from in RD3.

Thanks to a deep 2020 class, the top-tier is as heavy as ever.

Antonio Gibson & CEH are going late-RD2.

Swift, Dobbins, & Miles Sanders all sit with ADP’s well into mid-RD3.

If you feel handicapped to a RB-RB start, you can still accomplish it comfortably at 2.12/3.01.

There’s also David Montgomery in RD4, Travis Etienne & Kareem Hunt in RD5, Javonte Williams & Trey Sermon in RD6 (& Rojo & Zack Moss later).

You can still absolutely draft 2-3 RB’s through RD6 & 4 RB’s through RD9, if you please.

Passing on RB RD1 doesn’t have to be the end of the world…

Especially when you lock-in a 300-point scorer for your TE slot & consider the historical variance of the RB position…

ZERO RB’s have repeated as THE RB1 in back-to-back seasons since Priest Holmes did in 2002/2003.

Last year, 6/12 RB1 finishers had ADP’s outside RD1:

• Nick Chubb (RD2)
• JT (RD3)
• Kareem Hunt (RD5)
• Monty (RD6)
• J-Rob (UNDRAFTED)
• Mike Davis (UNDRAFTED)

And that’s just the RB1’s.

Add in RB13+ finishers:

• Swift
• Gibson
• Dobbins
• Akers
• RoJo
• Melvin
• DJ
• McKissic
• Mostert
• Edmonds
• Gaskin

& the streamers:

• Pollard
• Wilson
• Henderson
• McKinnon
• Gallman
• Harris
• Ahmed
• Dallas
• even Ballage… .

& you start to get the picture – a lot of RB production came from outside of RD1.

It happens every year.

In 2019, 7/12 RB1 finishers had ADP’s outside RD1.
In 2018, 5/12 RB1 finishers had ADP’s outside RD1.
In 2017, 8/12 RB1 finishers had ADP’s outside RD1.
In 2016, 9/12 RB1 finishers had ADP’s outside RD1.
In 2015, 11/12 RB1 finishers had ADP’s outside RD1…

Meanwhile, Travis Kelce’s finished as THE TE1 in 5-straight seasons.

Taking him > RB in RD1 is NOT going to kill you at RB – nowhere close to it, actually.

Especially if you’re accurate with your RB selections in RD2-16, off waivers, & via trades.

& if (when) you DO hit on your RD2-16 RB selections & find those RB1 finishers from outside RD1 – having a 300-point scorer in your TE-slot in addition to them absolutely OPTIMIZES your starting lineup’s scoring potential.

It might feel strange taking a TE RD1 if you haven’t before – nevermind at 1.01.

But Travis Kelce is worth it.

& the data fully supports him.

You can draft him as high as you want, even at 1.01.

Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.