Making the Case

• College Production (?)
• Alpha Size
• Athleticism
• NFL Bloodline
• Draft Capital
• Rookie Production
• Injury-Deflated Outlook
• Reception Perception
• Opportunity
• ADP

MPJ’s college production profile isn’t without flaws. I won’t deny that.

• SR Breakout
• Late Declare

But look at the whole picture.

He led USC in receiving yards as a JR.

Despite playing less games than Tyler Vaughns & Amon-Ra St. Brown.

His 18.5 YPR also suggests his volume could’ve been limited by being used almost strictly as a deep-threat.

When given a more complete route-tree as a SR, he dominated, leading USC with 101/1275/11 & being named a Biletnikoff finalist.

Say what you may about SR breakouts – but he still put up a 79th percentile target share.

Labeling him a “poor college producer” when he led USC in receiving yards, twice, as both a JR & SR, is questionable at best, at worst, exaggerating.

MPJ also looks the part.

At 6’4”/223, with a 4.52 40, 4.14 shuttle, & 36.5” vertical, he’s a Mike Evans-lookalike…

MPJ’s father, Michael Pittman, also played 11 seasons in the NFL – as a RB for AZ, TB, & DEN.

That sure doesn’t hurt his case.

IND also didn’t seem too concerned about his college profile when they drafted him 34th overall.

Some would tell you MPJ faceplanted as a rookie.

He played in 14 games (including playoffs) & put up 45/593.

A 16-game pace of 51/677, as a rookie, with a COVID-shortened off-season…

While also battling through compartment syndrome in his calf – an injury which cost him 3 games & hindered him in others…

Here’s an excerpt from the IndyStar:

Remove just his first game back from compartment syndrome (1/6), & you get 44/587 in 13 games – a 16-game pace of 54/722, as a rookie.

& that’s not even considering he might’ve produced more in games if not for the early-season injury setting back his trajectory.

54/722 as a rookie is certainly not “faceplanter” status – nor is it even close, in my opinion.

@RecepPerception sure doesn’t think he faceplanted.

IND doesn’t seem to think he faceplanted either…

Despite TY Hilton turning 32 this year & Parris Campbell’s durability in question, IND doubled down on MPJ by signing ZERO FA WR’s of merit & waiting until RD7 to draft small-schooler Michael Strachan.

Even with the pressure of having a new QB…

If that isn’t a show of faith, I don’t know what is.

Now, MPJ just needs to stay healthy & take even the most incremental of incremental steps forward, & we’re looking at 1,000 yards as a very reasonable YR2 projection.

Are other higher-upside players going in MPJ’s ADP range (like Terrace Marshall or Michael Gallup?)

Absolutely – & if you wanna shoot your shot on them instead, I support that.

But I am not on board with the MPJ Hate-Campaign.

He’s a solid value himself & is a very safe bet to both outproduce his WR47 redraft ADP as well as rise in value from his current WR46 Consensus Dynasty Ranking.

At least from my POV, he is.