Making the Case

• Size/Speed FREAK
• Early Breakout
• College Dominator
• Draft Capital
• NFL Production
• Situation
• Price Tag

Most people can’t pronounce his name – but even casual fans are starting to learn who Albert Okwuegbunam is.

Many of you know him simply for the fact he’s a size/speed FREAK.

6’ 5 1/2”
258 lbs
4.49 40

AKA a matchup-nightmare…

He’s not JUST a size/speed freak either – he was INSANELY productive in college.

He broke out immediately, recording 29 receptions for 415 yards & 11 TD’s (most among ALL TE’s in the country) – as a redshirt freshman, in the SEC.

His 19.4 year-old breakout age is 90th percentile.

He followed up his dominant freshman year by producing 43/466/6 in his first 9 games as a sophomore, before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury.

He was still named a finalist for the Mackey award.

He considered declaring after his sophomore season, but opted to return for his junior year.

Unfortunately, that year, the offense (led by Kelly Bryant) struggled to re-produce the results they’d had with Drew Lock the previous two seasons.

Albert O led the team in receiving TD’s, again – but finished with just 26/306/6.

He decided to forgo his senior season & declared early, finishing his college career with a 86th percentile Dominator Rating.

DEN then drafted him at the top of RD4 – a year after drafting Noah Fant in RD1.

Not *spectacular* draft capital for Big Al, but certainly not damning either, especially considering the rest of his stellar profile.

& his NFL performance so far has done nothing but validate that profile.

He played immediately his rookie year & he performed immediately.

Big Al caught 2/45 in his first career NFL game, Week 4, at NE.

7/60 in his second career game.

A 9-yard TD in his third career game.

& then tore his ACL in his fourth career game.

Luckily, he was able to rehab his ACL in time for Week 1 this season, at NYG.

& he put up 3/16 & a TD – in his first game back.

4 receptions for 24 yards, Week 2, at JAX.

& then two quiet 1-reception games before hurting his hammy, going on IR, & missing the next 3 games.

Since returning from IR, he’s produced outputs of:

• 3/34
• 4/25
• 3/77
• 1/12
• 3/21
• 5/41/1

In his 9th, 10th, 11th, 12th, 13th, & 14th career NFL games.

He’s pacing for 44/427/3 on 51 targets (in 16 games) this year, playing just 38% of the snaps, coming off an ACL injury – and he’s gaining steam…

In the 6 games since he & Jeudy returned from IR (Week 8), he’s out-targeted & out-produced Courtland Sutton:

• 19 receptions to 10
• 210 yards to 92
• 1 TD to 0
• 22 targets to 20

He & Fant have played 9 games together this year:

Fant

• 36 receptions
• 319 yards
• 2 TD’s
• 49 targets
• 79.9 fantasy points

Al

• 24 receptions
• 242 yards
• 2 TD’s
• 27 targets
• 60.2 fantasy points

With Al coming off a torn ACL.

There’s this idea that Albert O is locked away in a cellar behind the other Broncos… that we’re gonna have to “wait forever” to get anything useful out of him…

But the reality is: he is ALREADY being utilized, not too far off from the other Broncos – even as he works his way back from injury & has yet to play his 16th career game.

He’s rapidly approaching stand-alone value at a shallow TE position.

He’s not going to be completely useless the next two seasons while we “wait” for the breakout.

& it might only be a one-year wait…

Noah Fant is under contract in 2022, but DEN has to exercise his 5th-year option for 2023.

They should (& that should be expected), but even if they do, Al is a FA at the end of 2023.

He’ll be 26 – the same age Mark Andrews is today.

So you’re waiting two seasons at worst, one at best, until Albert O is UNLEASHED atop a depth chart.

That’s not long – especially when you consider you. are. waiting… on essentially every TE outside the top-12.

Possibly a year. Possibly two. Possibly forever.

You. Are. Waiting.

& the cold hard truth is that for most TE’s outside the top-12, all you’re ever gonna do is wait.

Most of them will never matter – at any point.

Albert O is one of the few who can – & very likely will.

He is about the closest thing to a guarantee you’re gonna get.

& because impatient dynasty players don’t wanna wait a season, or possibly two, his price is still DIRT cheap.

Cole Kmet, Irv Smith, TYLER HIGBEE, ADAM TRAUTMAN, & TYLER CONKLIN are all valued ahead of him on KeepTradeCut…

Higbee, Trautman, & Conklin people…

Come on…

These are TE’s who:

• were worse college producers
• are lesser athletes
• have done little to nothing in the NFL to show they’ll matter at any point

Being valued ahead of Big Al.

Kmet & Irv are valued almost twice as high (!!) & you might not get anything of relevance from them in 2022 either.

Or in 2023.

Or ever.

Kmet & Albert O are averaging the exact same PPG this year (6.5).

Kmet has played 82% of his team’s snaps.

Albert O has played 38% (!!)

The discrepancy in their valuation makes ZERO sense.

I urge you to take the superior player, the small +, & run directly to the bank.

Here are some more value-adjacent players.

I’ll take Al over every single one – in a heartbeat.

His value is going to continue to climb…

& by the time we get halfway through 2023 – or sooner – errbody & they mama gonna wanna get their hands on Albert O.

Whatever price you buy him for now – you’ll be able to sell him for (at least) twice as much later (a la Goedert sans Ertz).

He’s about as safe a bet as you can make at his current asking price.

The man is a PLAYMAKER & he can be a FORCE in this league.

For a long time.