Making the Case

• Elite Athlete
• Efficient
• Yardage-Creator
• Volume
• Receiving Upside
• Run-Heavy System
• Draft Capital
• Lingering Doubts
• Affordable Price Tag

Elijah Mitchell is another 2021 Rookie RB I’m very interested in buying – even after his 27.8-point “breakout” vs MIN.

For starters – he’s a fantastic athlete.

Not only is he blazing fast (4.35 Pro Day 40) – but he’s got lower-body explosiveness too (37.5” vertical).

According to PlayerProfiler – he has a 74th percentile SPARQ Score.

That blend of power & speed allows him to be extremely efficient with his touches.

He had an 85th percentile YPC in college.

& he’s averaging 4.84 YPC on his first 143 NFL carries – 9th best in the NFL amongst RB’s.

He’s also gained an impressive 2.5 YPC AFTER contact – 5th best in the NFL (behind only Chubb, JT, Kareem Hunt, & Javonte Williams).

He’s handled SIGNIFICANT volume – with 10+ touches in every game, including 27 touches & 32 touches in his last two games.

He has 4 100-yard rushing games in his first 8 games as a Pro.

He’s rendered 3rd rounder Trey Sermon a healthy inactive.

He out-touched veteran Jeff Wilson Jr. 32-3 this past week (in his first game back from injury).

& on top of the rushing volume, his role as a receiver is growing – with 5-reception games in 2 of his last 3 games.

The SF system is maximizing his potential & utilizing him like a true workhorse.

To put the icing on the cake – he has 4 top-10 RB-matchups left over the last 5 weeks (SEA/CIN/ATL/HOU).

So why’s there still hesitation?

Mostly because of (admittedly, informed) Draft Capital bias & (largely misinformed) notions regarding Kyle Shanahan’s “random” usage of RB’s.

People are worried Mitchell’s gonna get James Robinson’d & that SF will either sign or draft someone to replace him.

So why do I believe that’s unlikely to happen?

• Elijah Mitchell is really good, as evidenced by his athletic, efficiency, and after-contact metrics
• SF is not equipped with the cap space, draft picks, or new coaching staff that JAX had when selecting Etienne
• Kyle Shanahan’s RB usage is not random or unpredictable

Elijah Mitchell is averaging over 100 scrimmage yards per-game.

He’s pacing for 274 touches (!!) in 14 games played.

Only 4 RB’s have seen 250+ touches with Kyle Shanahan as playcaller:

• Steve Slaton
• Alfred Morris
• Devonta Freeman
• Carlos Hyde

All did so their FIRST year under Shanny (as Mitchell is pacing to do).

Morris & Freeman were given 285 & 281 touches, respectively, in their SECOND seasons with Shanahan.

Hyde left as a FA.

& Slaton saw 175 touches in 11 games (254-touch pace) his second season, before suffering a season-ending injury.

Shanahan didn’t randomly move away from any of those 250-touch RB’s & there’s no reason to believe he’ll randomly move away from Elijah Mitchell either.

That means that Mitchell ought to be viewed as SF’s locked & loaded workhorse heading into 2022 & beyond.

You can no longer buy-low on him with a future 2 – that ship has sailed.

But you can trade DOWN into him with a veteran RB – and because of the lingering doubts, you can probably still get a decent + on top.

Veteran RB’s like:

• Derrick Henry
• Aaron Jones
• Ezekiel Elliot
• David Montgomery
• Josh Jacobs

Can all be turned into Elijah Mitchell+, or even Mitchell++, almost universally.

Even young RB’s like:

• Antonio Gibson
• CEH (both of whom are being outscored by Mitchell this year)

As well as:

• Cam Akers
• & Travis Etienne

Can potentially be turned into Elijah Mitchell+, or even ++

Eli Mitchell is someone you should feel comfortable buying & if someone is overrating the gap between him & one of those other RB’s – you should be trying to extract that value while there’s still value left to be had.

He checks nearly every box & I expect him to continue to rise in value until consensus accurately weighs all of the boxes he DOES check vs the only ONE he doesn’t.