Making the Case

• NFL Bloodline
• College Producer
• Early-Declare

• Undersized
• Limited Athleticism
• Draft Capital (?)
• NFL Production (?)
• Target Competition
• Role Limitations
• Swift/Hockenson
• 2022/2023 Picks

Amon-Ra St. Brown is the WR6 (!!) in PPG over the last 4 weeks.

& his dynasty value has SKYROCKETED as a result.

He’s currently valued at WR30 by the voters on KeepTradeCut.

Two spots behind Chase Claypool.

Within 8 spots of Aiyuk, Bateman, Ridley, & Jeudy. & ahead of Gallup, MT, & Juju.

This looks like a clear sell-opportunity to me & this article will cover why.

First – let’s talk about the positives.

Amon-Ra is the younger brother of another NFL player – Packers WR Equanimeous St. Brown.

Amon-Ra was also very productive in college, at USC.

He put up 60/750/3 in 11 games as a true freshman – giving him a 91st percentile Breakout Age.

He followed that up with 77/1042/7 in 13 games as a sophomore. & finished with 41/487/7 in 6 games as a JR.

Then declared early for the NFL.

He was actually a really enticing prospect – up until his Pro Day.

But his workout results were as depressing as his college production & early-declare status were exciting.

He didn’t weigh in as big as many anticipated (5’11 1/2, 197 lbs) & ran a pedestrian 4.61 40.

When he wasn’t drafted in the first 3 rounds of the NFL Draft – it cemented the notion that his ceiling would likely be nothing more than “just” a quality slot WR.

& nothing through the first 12 weeks of the season challenged that notion.

ARSB was sitting at 39/352/0 (9.0 YPR) through 12 weeks – a 16-game rookie pace of 52/469/0.

Looking very much like what his limited athleticism & draft capital suggested – “just” a quality slot WR.

Then, D’Andre Swift hurt his shoulder on Thanksgiving, Week 12.

& the following week, ARSB had his best-game of the season, finishing with 10/86/1.

TJ Hockenson was injured in that game & ruled out before the following week.

Jamaal Williams was also ruled out with an injury of his own.

With Godwin Igwebuike & Craig Reynolds at RB, Josh Reynolds at WR, & some guy named Brock Wright at TE – DET has been forced to lean on Amon-Ra.

& he HAS delivered with lines of 8/73, 8/90/1, & 9/91/1.

& we SHOULD give him credit for that.

Bump him up the rankings.

He should stick as a slot WR & we shouldn’t be concerned about his floor or about him being a “bust” anymore.

But should we change our expectations for his ceiling much, if at all?

ARSB is still averaging just 9.4 YPR this year – on just a 6.8 ADoT.

He’s run 75% of his routes from the slot.

& he hasn’t had a single 100-yard game.

He still very much profiles like “just” a quality slot WR.

Like the Beasley’s & Crowder’s of the world.

Shepard or Landry if everything breaks right.

But that’s likely the ceiling.

At his core – ARSB’s still an undersized, athletically limited, low-ADoT, slot WR.

& there’s little evidence (if any) he’ll be used in other ways when Swift & Hockenson return & re-claim a significant share of those low-ADoT targets.

& that’s not even considering DET has extra 1’s in BOTH the 2022 & 2023 NFL Drafts (due to the Stafford trade), which they can use to bring in even more target-competition.

They have 6 picks in the first 2 rounds over the next two NFL Drafts.

Add it all up & it makes ARSB a SCREAMING SELL at his current WR30 valuation.

Sell for any future 1.

Sell for Chase Claypool straight up.

If you have to add a future 3 (or two) to get Claypool – DO IT.

(More on my Claypool thoughts here).

If you’re not a Claypool fan – add something small to ARSB & go after Aiyuk or Bateman (both RD1 NFL Draft picks).

Or Jeudy, or Ridley (also RD1 picks).

If you can’t pull off any trade-UP’s, trade DOWN.

Go after Gallup+, MT+, or Juju+ (or even straight up).

Start with ARSB/2023 3 for Juju, MT, or Gallup/2023 2.

(More on why I value future 2/3 swaps here).

If all else fails, try ARSB/2023 4 (or 3) for Christian Kirk/2023 2.

No matter which way you spin it – ARSB is a SELL.

He’s valued too close to WR’s above him who have legit WR1 upside.

& too far above similar (or better) complementary WR’s ranked below him.

Either trade UP or trade DOWN – just do it before the market inevitably corrects.