Making the Case

(Hey, someone’s gotta)

• Production (seriously)
• Freak Athlete
• System/Scheme
• Receiving Upside
• (Lack of) Competition
• A Changed Man (?)

In Miami, Kalen Ballage wasn’t just unproductive, he was historically inefficient.

After averaging 5.3 YPC on 36 attempts his first year (a number skewed by one long 75-yard TD run), Ballage averaged an absolutely horrendous 1.8 YPC on 74 carries last year, gaining just 135 yards on his way to becoming the laughing stock of the league.

He was promptly cut by the Dolphins and we (rightfully) dismissed his existence. But, he earned another chance with the Jets this year, and then obviously again with the Chargers this past week.

In his first game with the Chargers, he ripped off 15/69/1 & had what very much appeared to be the best game of his entire career.

And he looked GREAT doing it…

Idk how to cut up video clips (I need to learn), but there is plenty of evidence here.

2:45 – nice cut, hard run, finishes strong for an extra 5+ yards after-contact
2:55 – another hard run, gains 6 out of nothing
3:05 – one cut, slices through contact, easy TD
9:30 – Good blitz pickup as pass-blocker
9:55 – Another HARD run up the gut, hit after 2-3 yards, gains 9
12:05 – 59 seconds left in a 2-point game, who’s in? Kalen Ballage. Nice 5-yard catch, breaks a tackle, turns it into a first down.

Overall, no single big-play skewing the stat-line, just consistent, hard running.

He looked the best he’s ever looked – like the 6’1/228 pound freak athlete we all fell in love with in the first place.

And the advanced numbers back that up…

Of the 69 yards Ballage gained in his first game with LA, 43 of them came after contact, an average of 2.87 yards after-contact per-attempt, per PFF (a figure that would rank 6th in the NFL).

That’s particularly important when you consider that Ballage only topped that YAC/attempt figure in one single game in his two seasons with the Dolphins (in the game skewed by a 75-yard TD).

Maybe it’s just Ballage benefiting from a new system that puts him in a better position to gain yardage after contact, although, he also gained 6 of 13 yards on 3 attempts with the Jets this year after-contact as well…

Regardless, this is clearly a different Kalen Ballage we are dealing with – one that is now creating yardage for himself, whether through his own personal transformation or through the benefits of playing in a (vastly) superior system.

While we’re at it, let’s talk about the system. The Chargers are currently top-12 in RB fantasy points scored (12th to be exact, but top-12 sounds better, don’t you think?) That figure could be even higher with better RB play.

With Justin Herbert under center, the LA offense continues to COOK, with the team having scored 26+ points in 5 straight games, including 30+ in 3 of those 5.

That puts whichever RB’s the team uses on a weekly basis in a prime position to score fantasy points, which they have continually done.

Ekeler scored 18 & 31 fantasy points in his 2 full games with Herbert.

Joshua Kelley (who is averaging an abysmal 3.2 YPC/1.5 after-contact) also has 4 games with double-digit fantasy points.

Justin Jackson reached double-digits in 3 straight before getting hurt this past week.

Even special-teamer Troymaine Pope has a 67 rushing yard/5 reception game on his resume this year. And every single one of those backs has at least one game with 5+ receptions playing alongside Herbert this year…

It’s quite possible Ballage is already the best back behind Ekeler, and it might not even be close.

He’s certainly the most physically-gifted & he’s ahead of both Kelley & Jackson in both YPC & YAC/attempt so far (albeit over a small 15-carry sample-size).

The team owes nothing to Jackson or Kelley & with Jackson hurt & Kelley’s play leaving a whole lot to be desired, Ballage finds himself in prime position to stake his claim for the No. 2 role behind Austin Ekeler, in a system that has consistently supported multiple RB’s.

Ballage needs to get called back up from the practice squad again (he was just sent back down yesterday) but there are strong indications (like his play?) that he will be, so that “news” might actually be a positive by keeping the buy-window completely wide-open.

Assuming he’s elevated from the practice squad for another week, Ballage has a chance to stake his claim for a role that will maintain relevance even when Ekeler returns, with the upside to perhaps be featured in the meantime while Ekeler remains out.

If Ekeler remains out or is re-injured upon his return, there’s a chance the Chargers ride Ballage all the way through the end of the season to find out what they’ve really got on their hands.

I get it, even muttering the words “Kalen Ballage” under your breath is taboo around here, but this is the kind of freak athlete of a prospect in a near-perfect system (showing signs of progress) that we’d be all over if we hadn’t been burned by that prospect before.

I believe everyone should be bidding for his services & everyone who misses out should be trying to acquire him via trade for a low-upside veteran like Marvin Jones, or two 2021 4’s. There’s not a whole lot to lose if Ballage misses, but there is a ton to be gained if he hits.